Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Bailey Ober vs Colin Rea · 88°F

2.7% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

45.5%

Chicago Cubs win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

10.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.99)Chicago Cubs (mean 5.15)

O/U line

Proj. total

10.14

Over

34.5%

Under

56.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	45.5%	+129	+120
Chicago Cubs	54.5%	-140	-120

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trevor Larnach	4.9	.780	.208	.014	.179	.506	.923	.274	.356	.453	.809
Ryan Jeffers	4.8	.702	.211	.013	.210	.491	.839	.272	.361	.480	.840
Josh Bell	4.7	.723	.169	.013	.186	.442	.852	.262	.339	.443	.781
Kody Clemens	4.5	.605	.190	.039	.233	.311	.935	.256	.314	.487	.801
Royce Lewis	4.4	.635	.200	.004	.219	.345	.921	.261	.324	.475	.799
Brooks Lee	4.3	.716	.158	.024	.161	.286	.629	.265	.319	.437	.756
Alan Roden	4.2	.683	.180	.014	.110	.404	.741	.265	.347	.409	.757
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.715	.186	.015	.081	.390	.587	.275	.358	.401	.759
Tristan Gray	4.0	.545	.157	.015	.140	.253	1.075	.232	.287	.396	.683

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.709	.195	.045	.275	.267	1.028	.283	.333	.539	.872
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.704	.202	.019	.246	.392	1.047	.284	.351	.522	.873
Michael Busch	4.4	.636	.178	.030	.244	.423	.956	.276	.355	.523	.878
Alex Bregman	4.3	.714	.175	.012	.182	.383	.546	.278	.351	.470	.820
Ian Happ	4.2	.571	.173	.017	.190	.446	1.028	.254	.340	.462	.802
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.850	.204	.012	.074	.242	.328	.297	.347	.415	.761
Michael Conforto	4.0	.566	.167	.009	.174	.378	.922	.255	.333	.451	.783
Carson Kelly	3.9	.625	.146	.009	.156	.322	.687	.264	.332	.442	.774
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.592	.142	.018	.166	.295	.830	.265	.326	.460	.786

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections