Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 19, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Shota Imanaga · 75°F

2.1% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

41.4%

Chicago Cubs win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.17)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.69)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.86

Over

57.3%

Under

42.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	41.4%	+149	+142
Chicago Cubs	58.6%	-163	-142

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Austin Martin	4.7	.791	.207	.007	.052	.455	.854	.251	.331	.341	.672
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.646	.191	.012	.207	.399	.925	.255	.331	.458	.788
Josh Bell	4.5	.647	.150	.008	.186	.344	.931	.241	.304	.416	.721
Royce Lewis	4.4	.603	.175	.004	.220	.290	1.014	.246	.300	.452	.752
Victor Caratini	4.3	.701	.129	.004	.137	.270	.819	.247	.309	.386	.694
Kody Clemens	4.2	.532	.159	.030	.212	.244	.962	.239	.290	.458	.748
Luke Keaschall	4.1	.690	.174	.013	.078	.344	.658	.261	.334	.378	.713
Brooks Lee	4.0	.638	.136	.015	.138	.209	.667	.249	.293	.404	.697
Ryan Kreidler	3.8	.480	.123	.020	.099	.326	1.165	.207	.281	.339	.620

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.730	.200	.049	.222	.283	1.037	.280	.333	.505	.838
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.702	.194	.015	.203	.406	1.069	.274	.343	.479	.822
Michael Busch	4.4	.631	.182	.029	.195	.448	.974	.266	.349	.477	.826
Alex Bregman	4.3	.715	.180	.012	.151	.392	.563	.274	.348	.445	.793
Ian Happ	4.2	.573	.172	.017	.165	.452	1.040	.250	.337	.440	.777
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.841	.202	.014	.054	.250	.339	.293	.344	.397	.741
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.776	.158	.031	.070	.217	.688	.278	.324	.394	.719
Carson Kelly	3.9	.638	.138	.007	.134	.321	.681	.262	.330	.420	.750
Dansby Swanson	3.7	.589	.143	.020	.137	.286	.835	.259	.319	.432	.750

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections