Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Framber Valdez vs David Peterson · 77°F

0.2% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

47.6%

Chicago Cubs win

52.4%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

8.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.37)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.33)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.7

Over

47.8%

Under

44.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	47.6%	+107	+110
Chicago Cubs	52.4%	-116	-110

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.9	.808	.181	.005	.108	.627	.773	.263	.363	.386	.749
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.788	.210	.034	.090	.649	.603	.276	.380	.411	.791
Hao-Yu Lee	4.7	.710	.171	.028	.089	.361	1.028	.235	.302	.352	.654
Dillon Dingler	4.5	.712	.204	.023	.147	.324	.967	.262	.325	.429	.754
Riley Greene	4.4	.682	.197	.017	.163	.484	1.115	.271	.356	.456	.812
Spencer Torkelson	4.3	.509	.179	.006	.158	.525	1.153	.228	.331	.405	.736
Matt Vierling	4.2	.661	.161	.022	.087	.359	.826	.243	.313	.365	.678
Ben Malgeri	4.1	.597	.168	.028	.073	.351	1.093	.234	.308	.354	.661
Jake Rogers	4.0	.477	.125	.027	.114	.389	1.095	.209	.294	.356	.650

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.736	.204	.048	.161	.329	1.083	.269	.332	.452	.784
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.717	.209	.017	.139	.482	1.098	.268	.351	.432	.783
Alex Bregman	4.4	.738	.188	.011	.113	.486	.603	.270	.359	.410	.769
Carson Kelly	4.3	.723	.162	.010	.095	.414	.786	.255	.334	.376	.709
Michael Busch	4.2	.604	.177	.030	.136	.494	.955	.259	.357	.435	.792
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.850	.202	.012	.043	.295	.347	.293	.353	.387	.740
Ian Happ	4.0	.552	.170	.011	.098	.451	1.035	.236	.331	.374	.705
Dansby Swanson	3.9	.600	.145	.022	.104	.347	.920	.247	.318	.388	.706
Kevin Alcántara	3.8	.555	.149	.005	.095	.289	1.178	.232	.295	.359	.654

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections