New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Will Warren vs Shota Imanaga · 70°F

3.9% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

44.9%

Chicago Cubs win

55.1%

Fair line (home)

-123

Proj. total

8.28

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.07)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.21)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.28

Over

33.9%

Under

55.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	44.9%	+139	+123
Chicago Cubs	55.1%	-152	-123

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.7	.712	.180	.011	.192	.319	1.066	.253	.308	.432	.740
Ben Rice	4.6	.559	.154	.020	.300	.405	1.013	.252	.325	.518	.843
Amed Rosario	4.5	.801	.169	.023	.125	.191	.884	.264	.301	.404	.705
Jasson Domínguez	4.3	.683	.161	.005	.157	.288	1.014	.249	.304	.408	.712
Trent Grisham	4.2	.490	.131	.015	.213	.471	.951	.227	.317	.440	.758
Anthony Volpe	4.1	.560	.161	.023	.131	.291	.978	.229	.287	.385	.673
Spencer Jones	4.0	.468	.144	.007	.178	.274	1.544	.214	.272	.400	.672
Ali Sánchez	3.9	.582	.126	.005	.096	.229	.978	.221	.271	.336	.608
José Caballero	3.8	.541	.135	.007	.095	.296	.938	.226	.297	.352	.649

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.662	.179	.039	.206	.352	1.134	.260	.325	.469	.794
Pedro Ramírez	4.5	.791	.163	.029	.076	.310	.851	.257	.316	.366	.682
Michael Busch	4.4	.554	.159	.032	.180	.536	1.060	.245	.348	.448	.795
Alex Bregman	4.3	.646	.165	.009	.136	.500	.621	.257	.353	.416	.769
Ian Happ	4.2	.507	.152	.013	.141	.544	1.106	.227	.335	.395	.730
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.787	.175	.012	.053	.304	.371	.277	.339	.373	.713
Michael Conforto	4.0	.502	.147	.006	.137	.447	1.020	.229	.324	.393	.717
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.528	.125	.018	.134	.355	.950	.233	.307	.395	.702
Miguel Amaya	3.7	.519	.144	.008	.101	.316	.806	.231	.310	.370	.680

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections