Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Keider Montero vs Colin Rea · 70°F

3.2% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

50.0%

Chicago Cubs win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

+100

Proj. total

9.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.78)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.49)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.27

Over

52.9%

Under

39.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	50.0%	+109	-100
Chicago Cubs	50.0%	-119	+100

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.9	.816	.228	.037	.114	.586	.587	.282	.374	.434	.808
Dillon Dingler	4.8	.728	.214	.025	.194	.301	.953	.265	.323	.459	.782
Colt Keith	4.6	.799	.190	.030	.152	.390	.797	.278	.345	.446	.791
Riley Greene	4.5	.721	.214	.017	.201	.445	1.063	.285	.360	.494	.854
Spencer Torkelson	4.4	.527	.192	.005	.187	.472	1.128	.233	.323	.429	.752
Kerry Carpenter	4.3	.600	.150	.042	.214	.305	.984	.255	.318	.477	.795
Zach McKinstry	4.2	.617	.144	.056	.078	.384	.745	.237	.314	.366	.680
Hao-Yu Lee	4.1	.643	.160	.029	.096	.293	.841	.247	.308	.382	.690
James Outman	4.0	.459	.126	.032	.125	.383	1.273	.210	.297	.369	.666

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.703	.195	.043	.198	.312	1.038	.266	.326	.471	.797
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.668	.197	.018	.181	.454	1.060	.263	.341	.454	.795
Michael Busch	4.4	.606	.176	.028	.169	.495	.977	.253	.346	.445	.791
Alex Bregman	4.3	.683	.181	.011	.131	.437	.564	.263	.346	.418	.763
Ian Happ	4.2	.552	.168	.015	.141	.495	1.047	.238	.335	.407	.742
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.810	.194	.011	.048	.279	.335	.281	.339	.377	.715
Michael Conforto	4.0	.541	.162	.010	.128	.421	.950	.238	.327	.399	.725
Carson Kelly	3.9	.626	.139	.008	.108	.355	.672	.252	.327	.389	.717
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.558	.131	.020	.122	.313	.850	.242	.309	.398	.707

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections