New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Max Fried vs David Peterson · 70°F

0.6% edge · New York Yankees

New York Yankees win

47.1%

Chicago Cubs win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.00)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.02)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.02

Over

61.2%

Under

30.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	47.1%	+111	+112
Chicago Cubs	52.9%	-120	-112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Max Schuemann	4.8	.690	.166	.015	.074	.586	1.052	.229	.336	.331	.666
Paul Goldschmidt	4.7	.747	.195	.011	.140	.421	.989	.260	.332	.411	.743
Amed Rosario	4.5	.850	.191	.023	.103	.245	.838	.273	.319	.401	.720
Jasson Domínguez	4.4	.716	.166	.007	.112	.406	.965	.251	.326	.380	.706
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.587	.128	.017	.175	.473	1.089	.236	.325	.415	.741
Anthony Volpe	4.2	.582	.168	.025	.103	.392	.929	.230	.306	.367	.673
Spencer Jones	4.1	.510	.146	.007	.151	.375	1.502	.218	.295	.383	.678
Ali Sánchez	4.0	.618	.138	.007	.073	.310	.935	.227	.292	.328	.620
José Caballero	3.9	.570	.145	.007	.074	.384	.921	.231	.321	.342	.663

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.682	.190	.042	.172	.320	1.141	.258	.320	.446	.766
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.643	.186	.015	.156	.470	1.129	.253	.336	.425	.761
Alex Bregman	4.3	.660	.166	.011	.121	.461	.635	.250	.338	.393	.731
Carson Kelly	4.3	.657	.144	.007	.117	.409	.819	.243	.324	.377	.701
Michael Busch	4.2	.553	.163	.028	.145	.464	1.007	.245	.340	.426	.766
Nico Hoerner	4.0	.794	.188	.010	.048	.289	.374	.280	.340	.375	.715
Ian Happ	3.9	.522	.145	.010	.116	.437	1.060	.229	.322	.377	.699
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.545	.131	.016	.110	.337	.947	.231	.304	.374	.677
James Triantos	3.7	.661	.157	.011	.040	.155	.601	.247	.284	.331	.615

Data notes: away starter Max Fried: only 65 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections