New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Colin Rea · 70°F

3.4% edge · Chicago Cubs

New York Yankees win

49.9%

Chicago Cubs win

50.1%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

8.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.62)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.36)

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.98

Over

69.3%

Under

30.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	49.9%	-119	+101
Chicago Cubs	50.1%	+110	-101

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.8	.595	.169	.015	.211	.634	.942	.239	.345	.439	.783
Ben Rice	4.7	.611	.170	.022	.289	.504	.902	.263	.351	.524	.875
Amed Rosario	4.6	.860	.187	.022	.121	.216	.795	.274	.315	.412	.727
Spencer Jones	4.5	.554	.162	.009	.191	.370	1.562	.225	.295	.409	.704
Jasson Domínguez	4.4	.713	.167	.010	.141	.375	.891	.261	.330	.415	.745
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.597	.128	.017	.203	.424	1.018	.248	.329	.451	.780
Ryan McMahon	4.2	.519	.133	.003	.161	.463	1.196	.223	.314	.392	.706
José Caballero	4.1	.603	.156	.006	.093	.354	.906	.237	.317	.360	.677
Austin Wells	3.9	.477	.140	.008	.169	.367	.907	.225	.304	.412	.716

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.655	.184	.041	.223	.304	1.132	.261	.320	.483	.803
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.612	.176	.015	.212	.449	1.162	.254	.334	.466	.799
Michael Busch	4.4	.553	.165	.027	.199	.471	1.064	.246	.337	.458	.795
Alex Bregman	4.3	.655	.159	.010	.158	.426	.642	.259	.341	.432	.773
Ian Happ	4.2	.506	.158	.014	.160	.477	1.128	.229	.324	.412	.735
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.791	.174	.012	.065	.277	.390	.279	.337	.384	.721
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.698	.141	.026	.073	.237	.773	.255	.308	.367	.675
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.537	.125	.016	.152	.319	.951	.238	.305	.414	.719
Miguel Amaya	3.7	.526	.142	.007	.107	.288	.820	.233	.306	.375	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections