St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 15, 2026 · Michael McGreevy vs Matthew Boyd · 77°F

6.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

43.6%

Chicago Cubs win

56.4%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

9.22

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.43)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.79)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.22

Over

42.4%

Under

47.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	43.6%	+165	+130
Chicago Cubs	56.4%	-181	-130

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.795	.173	.007	.153	.446	.780	.266	.349	.418	.767
Iván Herrera	4.7	.752	.168	.011	.156	.516	.847	.270	.370	.434	.804
Jordan Walker	4.6	.667	.195	.009	.196	.356	1.154	.256	.321	.448	.769
Alec Burleson	4.5	.744	.183	.010	.192	.335	.655	.277	.337	.468	.805
Joshua Báez	4.3	.555	.158	.018	.178	.278	1.286	.227	.288	.409	.697
Masyn Winn	4.2	.714	.177	.021	.093	.311	.750	.259	.321	.387	.708
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.677	.186	.016	.111	.225	.579	.255	.300	.396	.697
Everson Pereira	4.0	.510	.138	.007	.164	.311	1.252	.224	.294	.400	.694
Pedro Pagés	3.9	.558	.134	.007	.121	.245	.995	.226	.282	.368	.650

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.774	.224	.051	.202	.292	.913	.289	.342	.505	.847
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.754	.220	.019	.177	.416	.935	.284	.353	.476	.830
Michael Busch	4.4	.665	.190	.032	.181	.459	.872	.271	.355	.474	.829
Alex Bregman	4.3	.765	.193	.011	.132	.408	.487	.283	.358	.440	.798
Ian Happ	4.2	.605	.193	.017	.149	.466	.910	.258	.345	.438	.784
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.874	.202	.013	.048	.248	.288	.296	.346	.393	.738
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.795	.166	.034	.065	.228	.606	.282	.330	.396	.726
Michael Conforto	3.9	.591	.174	.008	.127	.373	.824	.257	.336	.420	.756
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.627	.170	.008	.100	.276	.659	.262	.327	.402	.729

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections