St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Matthew Liberatore vs Clay Holmes · 74°F

8.8% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

45.5%

Chicago Cubs win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

9.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.64)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.84)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.47

Over

54.8%

Under

37.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	45.5%	+167	+120
Chicago Cubs	54.5%	-183	-120

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.842	.183	.009	.122	.536	.773	.270	.365	.402	.768
Iván Herrera	4.8	.807	.180	.012	.126	.595	.822	.276	.388	.420	.808
Alec Burleson	4.7	.834	.200	.014	.157	.423	.640	.284	.355	.448	.804
Jordan Walker	4.6	.733	.206	.008	.152	.405	1.113	.265	.336	.428	.764
Nathan Church	4.5	.773	.169	.018	.086	.313	.737	.254	.315	.367	.681
Masyn Winn	4.4	.754	.192	.022	.080	.358	.750	.264	.333	.383	.716
Bryan Torres	4.3	.782	.156	.019	.052	.501	.750	.270	.361	.363	.724
José Fermín	4.2	.661	.189	.006	.072	.461	.512	.255	.349	.370	.720
César Prieto	4.0	.705	.196	.015	.059	.244	.604	.259	.313	.366	.679

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.729	.210	.050	.210	.364	1.023	.281	.347	.502	.849
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.694	.209	.017	.189	.520	1.039	.275	.362	.476	.838
Alex Bregman	4.5	.724	.186	.011	.140	.503	.569	.272	.362	.433	.795
Michael Busch	4.3	.596	.179	.029	.177	.540	.943	.262	.364	.466	.830
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.871	.203	.013	.053	.324	.330	.294	.357	.395	.752
Carson Kelly	4.1	.667	.146	.008	.121	.417	.700	.256	.339	.399	.738
Ian Happ	4.0	.542	.169	.011	.146	.479	.990	.247	.344	.425	.769
Tyrone Taylor	3.9	.590	.188	.021	.113	.205	.774	.249	.299	.404	.703
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.576	.137	.020	.137	.363	.837	.254	.330	.426	.756

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections