St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Hunter Dobbins vs Edward Cabrera · 80°F

8.7% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

45.5%

Chicago Cubs win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

9.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.71)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.88)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.59

Over

45.9%

Under

44.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	45.5%	+166	+120
Chicago Cubs	54.5%	-182	-120

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.9	.785	.177	.007	.152	.560	.827	.266	.366	.419	.785
Iván Herrera	4.8	.751	.165	.011	.156	.609	.911	.269	.382	.432	.815
Alec Burleson	4.7	.779	.192	.012	.198	.407	.717	.281	.349	.473	.823
Jordan Walker	4.5	.671	.191	.009	.189	.414	1.211	.259	.333	.449	.782
Joshua Báez	4.4	.559	.157	.017	.178	.350	1.336	.226	.298	.407	.704
Nathan Church	4.3	.744	.154	.019	.107	.304	.783	.257	.317	.386	.703
Masyn Winn	4.2	.682	.186	.019	.093	.367	.784	.258	.331	.390	.721
Jimmy Crooks	4.1	.560	.140	.011	.122	.371	1.220	.226	.305	.369	.674
Blaze Jordan	4.0	.649	.180	.018	.115	.274	.578	.261	.317	.413	.730

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.753	.209	.047	.209	.338	.943	.283	.346	.500	.846
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.722	.220	.017	.185	.495	.961	.281	.363	.479	.842
Alex Bregman	4.5	.745	.187	.013	.142	.484	.506	.276	.364	.439	.802
Ian Happ	4.4	.617	.186	.019	.152	.549	.971	.257	.356	.436	.792
Nico Hoerner	4.3	.879	.215	.012	.057	.303	.304	.298	.357	.402	.759
Pedro Ramírez	4.2	.820	.169	.031	.068	.274	.638	.283	.338	.396	.733
Dansby Swanson	4.1	.637	.155	.021	.145	.375	.832	.262	.335	.435	.770
Michael Conforto	3.9	.570	.167	.009	.141	.440	.831	.256	.348	.432	.780
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.599	.168	.008	.102	.315	.677	.255	.331	.397	.729

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections