Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 17, 2026 · Luis Castillo vs Shota Imanaga · 71°F

3.7% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

44.6%

Chicago Cubs win

55.4%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.11)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.37)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.48

Over

46.5%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	44.6%	+139	+124
Chicago Cubs	55.4%	-152	-124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.7	.803	.170	.004	.100	.429	.900	.254	.328	.366	.695
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.509	.109	.006	.313	.538	1.422	.232	.326	.494	.820
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.567	.193	.014	.201	.457	.830	.244	.327	.450	.777
Randal Grichuk	4.4	.609	.191	.009	.207	.212	.932	.245	.287	.445	.732
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.617	.174	.011	.110	.294	1.209	.231	.290	.364	.654
Brenton Doyle	4.2	.620	.162	.017	.143	.236	1.139	.240	.287	.399	.686
Sam Antonacci	4.1	.710	.146	.023	.070	.333	.692	.262	.342	.373	.714
Luisangel Acuña	4.0	.729	.158	.014	.059	.189	.723	.256	.296	.353	.649
Jake Rogers	3.8	.438	.109	.022	.142	.298	1.141	.203	.270	.368	.639

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.654	.187	.040	.209	.326	1.129	.258	.321	.470	.791
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.633	.182	.015	.187	.475	1.159	.255	.339	.450	.789
Michael Busch	4.4	.560	.162	.028	.190	.501	1.058	.246	.342	.453	.795
Alex Bregman	4.3	.652	.169	.010	.140	.466	.621	.258	.347	.420	.767
Ian Happ	4.2	.529	.155	.015	.146	.506	1.128	.233	.332	.404	.736
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.780	.194	.010	.051	.290	.386	.277	.338	.375	.713
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.711	.141	.027	.067	.235	.759	.257	.308	.364	.672
Michael Conforto	3.8	.488	.144	.006	.132	.412	.985	.227	.318	.390	.708
Carson Kelly	3.7	.549	.131	.007	.120	.363	.726	.243	.325	.395	.720

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections