Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Sean Newcomb vs Clay Holmes · 69°F

4.5% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

47.3%

Chicago Cubs win

52.6%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

8.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.35)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.64

Over

54.4%

Under

45.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	47.3%	+129	+111
Chicago Cubs	52.6%	-140	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Newcomb LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.1	2.0	2.0	0.9	0.8
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.1	4.5	5.0	2.4	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Sean Newcomb4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Clay Holmes4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.871	.200	.026	.070	.445	.753	.274	.367	.383	.750
Munetaka Murakami	4.8	.539	.128	.004	.225	.753	1.398	.226	.355	.430	.785
Miguel Vargas	4.7	.605	.215	.012	.144	.597	.806	.244	.350	.412	.762
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.730	.162	.018	.109	.428	.862	.249	.325	.377	.702
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.685	.174	.038	.090	.416	1.099	.249	.329	.380	.709
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.508	.144	.008	.161	.398	1.286	.212	.298	.379	.677
Chase Meidroth	4.2	.730	.157	.004	.066	.485	.744	.259	.353	.358	.711
Tristan Peters	4.1	.655	.168	.024	.070	.357	.775	.247	.320	.362	.682
Jake Rogers	4.0	.492	.138	.017	.096	.406	1.098	.210	.298	.339	.637

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.607	.171	.048	.186	.446	1.219	.246	.330	.446	.776
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.599	.180	.013	.174	.578	1.176	.247	.349	.434	.783
Alex Bregman	4.4	.637	.162	.009	.137	.538	.688	.248	.349	.403	.752
Michael Busch	4.3	.559	.159	.024	.155	.545	1.036	.243	.350	.425	.776
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.810	.174	.013	.052	.346	.404	.276	.346	.370	.716
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.706	.155	.024	.074	.293	.822	.255	.317	.368	.685
Carson Kelly	4.0	.580	.129	.008	.113	.444	.790	.237	.330	.374	.704
Ian Happ	3.9	.461	.142	.011	.118	.516	1.081	.220	.333	.376	.710
Tyrone Taylor	3.8	.530	.167	.017	.106	.233	.851	.236	.296	.385	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections