Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Bryan Hudson vs Kevin Gausman · 74°F

7.0% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

45.3%

Chicago Cubs win

54.8%

Fair line (home)

-121

Proj. total

8.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.25)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.41)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.66

Over

37.6%

Under

52.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	45.3%	+156	+121
Chicago Cubs	54.8%	-171	-121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryan Hudson LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.3	2.1	2.2	1.1	1.0
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.5	5.6	5.2	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Bryan Hudson4+ 15%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Kevin Gausman4+ 77%6+ 48%8+ 22%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.852	.177	.028	.083	.430	.839	.270	.353	.384	.737
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.513	.115	.005	.296	.605	1.453	.231	.335	.482	.817
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.579	.192	.012	.188	.520	.883	.244	.337	.439	.776
Andrew Benintendi	4.4	.690	.159	.023	.150	.362	.904	.252	.316	.413	.729
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.615	.179	.018	.106	.351	1.221	.232	.300	.368	.668
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.488	.136	.010	.225	.332	1.298	.223	.294	.439	.733
Chase Meidroth	4.1	.691	.140	.005	.074	.438	.803	.250	.336	.352	.688
Tristan Peters	4.0	.600	.167	.018	.084	.315	.876	.237	.302	.362	.663
Drew Romo	3.9	.522	.128	.009	.111	.232	1.011	.212	.266	.344	.610

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.661	.181	.044	.190	.389	1.142	.256	.330	.456	.786
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.623	.189	.017	.169	.564	1.167	.253	.351	.438	.789
Alex Bregman	4.4	.644	.162	.010	.134	.575	.646	.250	.357	.404	.761
Michael Busch	4.3	.527	.148	.024	.163	.582	1.058	.234	.348	.421	.769
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.801	.189	.011	.052	.372	.390	.278	.351	.375	.726
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.735	.148	.021	.063	.291	.783	.256	.317	.356	.673
Ian Happ	4.0	.488	.153	.012	.136	.547	1.059	.231	.344	.402	.747
Miguel Amaya	3.9	.536	.149	.007	.099	.379	.841	.229	.318	.362	.680
Michael Conforto	3.8	.476	.144	.007	.126	.474	.957	.231	.336	.396	.732

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections