Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs David Peterson · 75°F

4.2% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

39.6%

Chicago Cubs win

60.4%

Fair line (home)

-152

Proj. total

9.46

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.36)Chicago Cubs (mean 5.10)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.46

Over

44.5%

Under

45.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	39.6%	+176	+152
Chicago Cubs	60.4%	-194	-152

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Rhett Lowder RHP · Cincinnati Reds	4.5	3.6	5.1	2.0	2.6
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.7	4.6	4.6	1.9	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Rhett Lowder4+ 50%6+ 15%8+ 3%

David Peterson4+ 69%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.8	.807	.160	.005	.109	.410	1.188	.249	.322	.364	.686
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.675	.189	.045	.160	.469	1.229	.256	.335	.437	.772
Sal Stewart	4.6	.677	.205	.004	.188	.436	.962	.262	.339	.452	.790
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.628	.173	.006	.123	.482	1.175	.236	.326	.376	.702
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.491	.150	.003	.211	.417	1.347	.221	.309	.425	.734
JJ Bleday	4.3	.508	.167	.015	.167	.558	.937	.233	.337	.422	.759
Matt McLain	4.2	.534	.161	.004	.106	.462	1.127	.222	.317	.356	.673
Jose Trevino	4.0	.652	.159	.005	.102	.235	.676	.244	.292	.370	.662
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.607	.146	.027	.139	.232	.801	.251	.300	.420	.720

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.671	.204	.053	.240	.409	1.108	.276	.348	.519	.867
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.697	.203	.013	.210	.541	1.044	.279	.369	.492	.861
Michael Busch	4.5	.631	.184	.025	.197	.536	.987	.266	.364	.478	.843
Alex Bregman	4.4	.676	.185	.010	.170	.509	.602	.273	.366	.460	.825
Ian Happ	4.3	.542	.163	.014	.161	.579	1.071	.241	.350	.425	.776
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.857	.194	.015	.062	.319	.347	.297	.361	.405	.766
Pedro Ramírez	4.1	.754	.172	.036	.088	.292	.711	.281	.340	.417	.757
Michael Conforto	4.0	.520	.157	.006	.153	.479	.948	.245	.347	.429	.776
Carson Kelly	3.8	.599	.132	.009	.120	.395	.689	.253	.338	.403	.741

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections