Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Andrew Abbott vs Kevin Gausman · 77°F

4.0% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

41.1%

Chicago Cubs win

58.9%

Fair line (home)

-143

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.30)Chicago Cubs (mean 5.00)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.3

Over

43.1%

Under

46.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	41.1%	+164	+143
Chicago Cubs	58.9%	-179	-143

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Abbott LHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.1	4.1	5.6	2.1	2.9
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.5	5.7	5.1	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Abbott4+ 59%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Kevin Gausman4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Héctor Rodríguez	4.7	.713	.165	.032	.213	.246	1.026	.252	.294	.446	.740
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.647	.171	.053	.185	.437	1.265	.254	.328	.455	.783
Sal Stewart	4.5	.655	.192	.003	.212	.380	1.005	.259	.326	.463	.789
JJ Bleday	4.4	.511	.168	.015	.195	.513	1.033	.230	.322	.432	.754
Tyler Stephenson	4.3	.587	.166	.004	.144	.419	1.205	.234	.314	.391	.705
Eugenio Suárez	4.2	.467	.139	.003	.225	.351	1.383	.219	.293	.435	.727
Jose Trevino	4.1	.645	.152	.005	.116	.214	.731	.238	.281	.371	.653
TJ Friedl	4.0	.578	.128	.019	.099	.369	.823	.233	.315	.363	.678
Matt McLain	3.8	.491	.141	.004	.127	.374	1.112	.222	.303	.375	.678

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.658	.183	.048	.257	.418	1.136	.273	.346	.523	.869
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.654	.188	.012	.234	.543	1.075	.274	.364	.504	.867
Alex Bregman	4.4	.688	.183	.010	.177	.515	.614	.273	.364	.463	.827
Michael Busch	4.3	.587	.165	.022	.208	.514	.968	.261	.356	.482	.838
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.863	.188	.016	.074	.322	.375	.295	.356	.409	.765
Matt Shaw	4.1	.607	.149	.034	.155	.410	.743	.256	.336	.442	.778
Tyrone Taylor	4.0	.576	.186	.019	.155	.237	.850	.251	.304	.435	.740
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.706	.159	.021	.100	.256	.730	.273	.327	.412	.739
Carson Kelly	3.8	.586	.124	.007	.140	.409	.683	.256	.342	.423	.765

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections