Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Chase Burns vs Shota Imanaga · 74°F

5.0% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

45.9%

Chicago Cubs win

54.1%

Fair line (home)

-118

Proj. total

8.75

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.32)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.43)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.75

Over

38.0%

Under

52.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	45.9%	+140	+118
Chicago Cubs	54.1%	-152	-118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chase Burns RHP · Cincinnati Reds	5.2	5.9	4.8	2.1	2.3
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	5.8	5.2	1.2	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Chase Burns4+ 86%6+ 56%8+ 24%

Shota Imanaga4+ 85%6+ 53%8+ 22%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dane Myers	4.7	.740	.154	.008	.142	.300	1.271	.240	.296	.377	.673
Elly De La Cruz	4.6	.639	.172	.036	.216	.347	1.261	.253	.314	.466	.780
Sal Stewart	4.5	.642	.188	.004	.243	.323	.992	.262	.321	.487	.808
Tyler Stephenson	4.4	.604	.168	.005	.168	.361	1.229	.238	.306	.409	.715
Eugenio Suárez	4.3	.481	.140	.002	.268	.298	1.389	.228	.292	.471	.763
JJ Bleday	4.2	.476	.158	.015	.208	.416	.998	.230	.310	.448	.758
Matt McLain	4.0	.507	.162	.005	.139	.340	1.181	.222	.295	.383	.678
Héctor Rodríguez	3.9	.571	.138	.025	.184	.188	.854	.247	.287	.445	.732
Edwin Arroyo	3.8	.639	.128	.030	.086	.155	.842	.245	.283	.368	.652

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.596	.177	.050	.230	.391	1.341	.252	.324	.484	.808
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.596	.181	.012	.192	.514	1.305	.248	.339	.446	.785
Michael Busch	4.4	.566	.155	.022	.195	.500	1.204	.245	.340	.449	.789
Alex Bregman	4.3	.620	.162	.009	.160	.496	.754	.254	.349	.431	.780
Ian Happ	4.2	.493	.148	.012	.156	.551	1.267	.224	.332	.401	.733
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.803	.181	.015	.061	.302	.456	.284	.345	.389	.734
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.688	.155	.033	.092	.270	.882	.264	.320	.399	.718
Michael Conforto	3.9	.450	.138	.007	.133	.442	1.155	.216	.313	.379	.693
Miguel Amaya	3.7	.507	.142	.007	.112	.306	.984	.227	.302	.373	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections