Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Jacob Misiorowski vs David Peterson · 88°F

6.3% edge · Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers win

52.2%

Chicago Cubs win

47.8%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.75)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

Over

49.9%

Under

50.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	52.2%	-148	-109
Chicago Cubs	47.8%	+136	+109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Misiorowski RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.2	6.7	4.4	2.3	2.1
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.6	4.0	4.8	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Misiorowski4+ 91%6+ 68%8+ 35%

David Peterson4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.9	.771	.237	.016	.192	.385	1.065	.271	.333	.459	.791
Brice Turang	4.8	.794	.195	.021	.115	.540	1.066	.266	.351	.403	.754
Andrew Vaughn	4.7	.724	.210	.015	.153	.398	.878	.261	.332	.426	.758
William Contreras	4.6	.755	.193	.008	.144	.543	.764	.275	.366	.436	.802
Jake Bauers	4.5	.561	.158	.018	.186	.618	1.181	.242	.353	.440	.793
Luis Lara	4.4	.730	.165	.025	.057	.431	.869	.252	.335	.351	.686
Gary Sánchez	4.3	.504	.128	.015	.187	.492	1.025	.227	.329	.422	.751
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.667	.171	.027	.085	.360	.723	.253	.324	.381	.706
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.619	.134	.028	.081	.403	.795	.240	.323	.361	.683

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.557	.161	.045	.205	.411	1.484	.235	.317	.445	.762
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.556	.174	.013	.183	.543	1.424	.236	.334	.427	.762
Alex Bregman	4.4	.602	.164	.010	.155	.529	.896	.246	.349	.417	.766
Michael Busch	4.3	.515	.145	.021	.173	.516	1.276	.231	.336	.422	.758
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.791	.176	.016	.056	.341	.542	.275	.347	.375	.722
Ian Happ	4.1	.446	.142	.012	.139	.542	1.347	.211	.325	.378	.703
Matt Shaw	4.0	.531	.134	.031	.131	.397	.982	.234	.320	.401	.721
Tyrone Taylor	3.9	.498	.155	.017	.124	.227	1.091	.223	.283	.380	.663
Miguel Amaya	3.7	.492	.132	.006	.107	.316	1.061	.221	.305	.361	.667

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections