Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Robert Gasser vs Matthew Boyd · 86°F

0.9% edge · Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers win

46.9%

Chicago Cubs win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

9.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.69)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.78)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.47

Over

37.1%

Under

55.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	46.9%	+113	+113
Chicago Cubs	53.1%	-123	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robert Gasser LHP · Milwaukee Brewers	5.0	4.4	5.2	1.6	2.6
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	4.6	5.5	1.9	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Robert Gasser4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Matthew Boyd4+ 69%6+ 32%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.739	.225	.016	.231	.328	1.031	.269	.323	.481	.803
Brice Turang	4.7	.763	.180	.021	.148	.475	1.051	.262	.339	.418	.757
William Contreras	4.6	.757	.195	.008	.171	.496	.767	.276	.358	.452	.810
Jake Bauers	4.5	.560	.154	.016	.219	.565	1.225	.242	.343	.457	.801
Andrew Vaughn	4.4	.670	.190	.016	.169	.347	.821	.260	.327	.440	.767
Christian Yelich	4.3	.654	.159	.013	.154	.435	1.079	.255	.337	.423	.760
Luis Lara	4.2	.698	.158	.024	.062	.362	.858	.248	.323	.352	.675
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.638	.164	.026	.101	.316	.719	.248	.311	.386	.697
Cooper Pratt	4.0	.599	.127	.032	.087	.353	.779	.236	.312	.363	.675

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.617	.183	.046	.256	.362	1.190	.263	.334	.512	.846
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.629	.198	.015	.232	.465	1.150	.267	.349	.497	.846
Alex Bregman	4.4	.666	.182	.011	.186	.447	.678	.268	.353	.463	.816
Tyrone Taylor	4.3	.609	.199	.021	.165	.218	.950	.247	.300	.430	.730
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.843	.190	.016	.068	.281	.397	.289	.348	.400	.748
Michael Busch	4.1	.558	.158	.024	.194	.430	.976	.260	.350	.478	.829
Carson Kelly	4.0	.605	.136	.008	.155	.368	.768	.253	.331	.426	.757
BJ Murray Jr.	3.9	.536	.119	.025	.122	.316	1.029	.229	.302	.381	.683
Matt Shaw	3.8	.546	.137	.030	.146	.332	.734	.255	.330	.443	.773

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections