Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Logan Henderson vs Kevin Gausman · 75°F

5.5% edge · Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee Brewers win

48.3%

Chicago Cubs win

51.7%

Fair line (home)

-107

Proj. total

8.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Milwaukee Brewers (mean 4.42)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.79

Over

48.1%

Under

51.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Milwaukee Brewers	48.3%	-121	+107
Chicago Cubs	51.7%	+112	-107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Logan Henderson RHP · Milwaukee Brewers	4.7	5.0	4.4	1.7	2.1
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	5.5	5.2	1.9	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Logan Henderson4+ 77%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Kevin Gausman4+ 81%6+ 48%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Milwaukee Brewers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Chourio	4.8	.742	.225	.015	.211	.329	1.119	.267	.320	.465	.785
Brice Turang	4.7	.740	.177	.021	.133	.474	1.122	.254	.331	.401	.732
William Contreras	4.6	.743	.182	.009	.151	.501	.828	.268	.351	.428	.780
Jake Bauers	4.5	.545	.144	.015	.197	.569	1.281	.233	.335	.430	.765
Andrew Vaughn	4.4	.653	.180	.017	.151	.342	.883	.251	.315	.418	.733
Christian Yelich	4.3	.632	.149	.015	.134	.457	1.124	.246	.331	.399	.730
Garrett Mitchell	4.2	.565	.159	.025	.112	.444	1.364	.233	.320	.382	.702
Joey Ortiz	4.1	.625	.158	.024	.094	.321	.751	.242	.306	.374	.680
David Hamilton	3.9	.541	.120	.024	.099	.325	1.012	.218	.287	.348	.635

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.589	.172	.044	.230	.358	1.321	.248	.315	.475	.790
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.591	.180	.012	.214	.471	1.265	.251	.334	.463	.797
Michael Busch	4.4	.547	.155	.023	.199	.483	1.153	.241	.334	.449	.784
Alex Bregman	4.3	.614	.161	.008	.168	.453	.735	.253	.340	.433	.773
Ian Happ	4.2	.487	.150	.012	.162	.507	1.247	.223	.324	.405	.728
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.789	.176	.013	.065	.271	.443	.279	.336	.385	.721
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.683	.144	.028	.091	.256	.873	.258	.312	.387	.698
Michael Conforto	3.8	.452	.137	.008	.149	.407	1.105	.220	.311	.397	.708
Carson Kelly	3.7	.538	.109	.007	.126	.355	.811	.234	.314	.385	.698

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections