Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Wilber Dotel vs Shota Imanaga · 71°F

7.8% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

43.8%

Chicago Cubs win

56.2%

Fair line (home)

-128

Proj. total

8.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.25)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.65)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.9

Over

49.9%

Under

42.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	43.8%	+172	+128
Chicago Cubs	56.2%	-188	-128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Wilber Dotel RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.1	1.6	2.3	1.1	1.1
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	5.5	5.4	1.2	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Wilber Dotel4+ 7%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Shota Imanaga4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.8	.828	.185	.036	.140	.261	1.193	.269	.318	.421	.739
Oneil Cruz	4.6	.599	.164	.029	.225	.423	1.475	.243	.316	.457	.774
Bryan Reynolds	4.5	.685	.184	.015	.154	.346	1.118	.252	.318	.415	.734
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.4	.652	.162	.015	.167	.318	1.217	.245	.304	.416	.720
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.532	.170	.011	.245	.384	1.300	.246	.319	.483	.802
Nick Gonzales	4.2	.786	.199	.020	.079	.235	.762	.276	.325	.397	.722
Jake Mangum	4.1	.804	.165	.018	.046	.156	.776	.266	.303	.353	.656
Jared Triolo	4.0	.638	.151	.011	.079	.337	.880	.244	.314	.357	.671
Henry Davis	3.9	.496	.129	.004	.154	.271	.926	.221	.286	.390	.677

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.618	.195	.051	.205	.466	1.157	.256	.342	.475	.817
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.644	.203	.013	.170	.616	1.090	.261	.366	.448	.814
Michael Busch	4.5	.575	.179	.023	.152	.580	1.044	.243	.353	.421	.773
Alex Bregman	4.4	.669	.172	.009	.140	.552	.625	.263	.366	.425	.791
Ian Happ	4.3	.532	.167	.013	.128	.597	1.128	.232	.348	.391	.739
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.844	.187	.015	.052	.329	.387	.290	.356	.388	.745
Michael Conforto	4.1	.521	.156	.008	.120	.528	1.008	.232	.343	.384	.728
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.686	.154	.033	.077	.303	.745	.264	.328	.388	.717
Carson Kelly	3.8	.578	.129	.005	.107	.430	.705	.244	.339	.382	.721

Data notes: away starter Wilber Dotel: only 62 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections