Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Paul Skenes vs Clay Holmes · 79°F

7.8% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

54.5%

Chicago Cubs win

45.5%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.79)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.07)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

8.86

Over

39.5%

Under

60.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	54.5%	+110	-120
Chicago Cubs	45.5%	-119	+120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Paul Skenes RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	5.1	5.7	4.7	1.7	2.0
Clay Holmes RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.1	4.4	5.7	2.1	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Paul Skenes4+ 84%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Clay Holmes4+ 66%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Oneil Cruz	4.9	.702	.187	.035	.171	.593	1.427	.254	.350	.433	.783
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.704	.209	.011	.181	.472	1.182	.256	.335	.436	.771
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.760	.205	.024	.118	.518	1.038	.268	.359	.415	.774
Konnor Griffin	4.6	.864	.182	.037	.095	.354	1.050	.282	.348	.411	.759
Ryan O'Hearn	4.5	.804	.194	.014	.122	.424	.816	.282	.357	.428	.785
Spencer Horwitz	4.4	.743	.208	.015	.093	.538	.690	.279	.376	.415	.791
Jake Mangum	4.3	.895	.179	.028	.032	.227	.716	.284	.333	.367	.700
Jacob Gonzalez	4.2	.633	.198	.015	.102	.305	.739	.248	.312	.389	.700
Henry Davis	4.0	.575	.157	.005	.122	.359	.885	.238	.319	.385	.704

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.602	.186	.048	.192	.355	1.354	.246	.314	.451	.765
Alex Bregman	4.5	.678	.189	.010	.139	.462	.808	.256	.342	.414	.756
Michael Busch	4.4	.566	.174	.025	.157	.471	1.220	.240	.333	.420	.753
Ian Happ	4.3	.524	.162	.012	.129	.504	1.319	.221	.321	.375	.695
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.841	.186	.014	.054	.278	.484	.285	.344	.383	.726
Michael Conforto	4.1	.510	.152	.009	.126	.435	1.201	.223	.317	.376	.693
Carson Kelly	4.0	.605	.132	.006	.111	.362	.872	.240	.317	.374	.691
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.657	.148	.034	.068	.237	.873	.254	.308	.372	.680
Tyrone Taylor	3.7	.532	.178	.015	.099	.192	.922	.238	.291	.383	.673

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections