Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Reynaldo López vs David Peterson · 68°F

4.9% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

49.9%

Chicago Cubs win

50.1%

Fair line (home)

-101

Proj. total

9.27

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.77)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.50)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.27

Over

42.5%

Under

57.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	49.9%	+118	+101
Chicago Cubs	50.1%	-128	-101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Reynaldo López RHP · Atlanta Braves	3.0	2.9	3.1	1.4	1.5
David Peterson LHP · Chicago Cubs	4.6	3.9	4.9	2.0	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Reynaldo López4+ 32%6+ 6%8+ 1%

David Peterson4+ 55%6+ 19%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.9	.767	.179	.015	.182	.713	1.001	.276	.389	.459	.848
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.819	.172	.011	.177	.482	.909	.276	.356	.446	.802
Matt Olson	4.7	.610	.201	.007	.212	.614	1.119	.255	.358	.466	.824
Ozzie Albies	4.6	.742	.193	.012	.120	.351	.683	.256	.322	.395	.716
Michael Harris II	4.5	.804	.200	.027	.162	.209	.842	.283	.321	.458	.778
Mauricio Dubón	4.3	.810	.186	.015	.069	.258	.525	.266	.314	.370	.684
Austin Riley	4.2	.623	.167	.015	.141	.372	1.184	.248	.323	.411	.733
Sean Murphy	4.1	.495	.149	.006	.135	.445	1.132	.218	.316	.374	.690
Ha-Seong Kim	4.0	.594	.147	.012	.070	.491	.759	.236	.336	.346	.682

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.613	.191	.045	.227	.387	1.218	.256	.326	.485	.811
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.638	.197	.014	.193	.512	1.157	.262	.350	.464	.813
Michael Busch	4.4	.565	.183	.022	.182	.486	1.077	.246	.340	.446	.786
Alex Bregman	4.3	.657	.173	.007	.158	.453	.652	.262	.348	.435	.783
Ian Happ	4.2	.529	.159	.012	.143	.505	1.171	.230	.330	.398	.727
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.846	.179	.011	.054	.263	.409	.288	.342	.384	.726
Michael Conforto	4.0	.510	.152	.006	.139	.439	1.047	.230	.324	.396	.720
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.675	.150	.033	.082	.244	.777	.260	.313	.389	.702
Carson Kelly	3.8	.581	.130	.006	.121	.337	.727	.247	.322	.396	.718

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections