Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Matthew Boyd · 62°F

2.7% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

44.4%

Chicago Cubs win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

8.86

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.22)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.86

Over

57.1%

Under

32.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	44.4%	+135	+125
Chicago Cubs	55.6%	-146	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	4.2	4.8	2.5	2.4
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	4.9	5.5	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Bubba Chandler4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Matthew Boyd4+ 74%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.8	.871	.190	.037	.114	.310	1.131	.274	.332	.411	.743
Oneil Cruz	4.7	.614	.175	.026	.193	.506	1.414	.243	.331	.438	.769
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.712	.185	.013	.126	.410	1.050	.253	.332	.397	.729
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.5	.650	.176	.015	.141	.364	1.158	.241	.310	.396	.706
Nick Gonzales	4.4	.814	.205	.023	.068	.277	.745	.275	.331	.388	.719
Ryan O'Hearn	4.3	.698	.175	.011	.136	.364	.781	.264	.335	.421	.756
Jake Mangum	4.2	.828	.175	.019	.038	.179	.711	.271	.314	.355	.669
Jared Triolo	4.0	.664	.158	.010	.064	.389	.831	.248	.328	.351	.679
Henry Davis	3.9	.518	.133	.006	.125	.315	.902	.221	.297	.367	.664

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.658	.190	.046	.192	.469	1.136	.260	.345	.466	.811
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.661	.197	.012	.155	.638	1.079	.262	.370	.437	.807
Michael Busch	4.5	.595	.180	.025	.146	.602	1.016	.248	.362	.424	.786
Alex Bregman	4.4	.663	.172	.009	.130	.557	.610	.260	.365	.414	.779
Ian Happ	4.3	.532	.165	.012	.122	.614	1.122	.230	.350	.384	.734
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.844	.179	.015	.049	.322	.383	.287	.352	.381	.733
Michael Conforto	4.1	.518	.157	.007	.123	.532	1.001	.232	.344	.388	.731
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.713	.145	.035	.072	.304	.746	.268	.333	.388	.721
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.537	.149	.007	.086	.356	.874	.230	.320	.355	.675

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections