Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Martín Pérez vs Kevin Gausman · 74°F

3.9% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

47.1%

Chicago Cubs win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.71)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.78)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.49

Over

55.0%

Under

45.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	47.1%	+127	+112
Chicago Cubs	52.9%	-138	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Martín Pérez LHP · Atlanta Braves	4.2	3.0	4.8	1.9	2.4
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.4	5.1	5.5	1.7	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Martín Pérez4+ 36%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Kevin Gausman4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.791	.171	.009	.205	.413	.970	.270	.338	.455	.792
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.7	.728	.169	.017	.214	.574	1.013	.277	.370	.484	.855
Matt Olson	4.6	.580	.201	.006	.256	.497	1.152	.257	.341	.498	.839
Michael Harris II	4.5	.782	.207	.022	.187	.176	.902	.280	.311	.469	.780
Mauricio Dubón	4.4	.808	.190	.013	.084	.219	.565	.265	.305	.378	.683
Austin Riley	4.3	.597	.160	.017	.169	.322	1.262	.241	.305	.420	.724
Mike Yastrzemski	4.2	.514	.158	.016	.144	.440	1.025	.226	.313	.395	.707
Ozzie Albies	4.0	.645	.168	.011	.133	.279	.646	.257	.313	.415	.728
Brewer Hicklen	3.9	.530	.132	.025	.138	.273	1.191	.229	.291	.394	.686

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.687	.191	.043	.236	.405	1.050	.275	.346	.508	.854
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.677	.198	.016	.189	.547	1.029	.271	.362	.470	.833
Alex Bregman	4.4	.697	.192	.009	.165	.475	.574	.272	.359	.452	.811
Tyrone Taylor	4.3	.676	.221	.021	.137	.247	.836	.262	.314	.429	.742
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.867	.189	.015	.058	.291	.354	.290	.347	.391	.738
Michael Busch	4.1	.565	.167	.020	.175	.480	.912	.258	.353	.461	.814
Matt Shaw	4.0	.606	.156	.037	.123	.396	.736	.257	.337	.424	.761
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.732	.157	.022	.087	.249	.687	.275	.328	.402	.730
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.564	.157	.008	.107	.306	.828	.244	.318	.387	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections