Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · JR Ritchie vs Shota Imanaga · 67°F

6.8% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

47.7%

Chicago Cubs win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-110

Proj. total

9.28

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.64)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.28

Over

60.4%

Under

39.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	47.7%	+140	+110
Chicago Cubs	52.3%	-152	-110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
JR Ritchie RHP · Atlanta Braves	3.9	3.3	4.1	2.3	2.1
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.3	4.7	5.5	1.3	2.6

Strikeout ladder

JR Ritchie4+ 44%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Shota Imanaga4+ 71%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.8	.733	.172	.012	.236	.522	1.036	.275	.360	.490	.850
Drake Baldwin	4.7	.734	.167	.009	.220	.362	.926	.265	.328	.463	.792
Matt Olson	4.5	.588	.191	.008	.266	.430	1.140	.257	.332	.503	.835
Ozzie Albies	4.4	.689	.183	.010	.155	.255	.704	.250	.300	.411	.711
Michael Harris II	4.3	.738	.196	.021	.197	.159	.865	.277	.307	.476	.783
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.780	.179	.014	.094	.197	.529	.266	.304	.388	.693
Austin Riley	4.1	.572	.150	.015	.190	.265	1.189	.243	.300	.440	.740
Sean Murphy	4.0	.465	.140	.005	.165	.343	1.145	.216	.295	.395	.690
Ha-Seong Kim	3.9	.573	.129	.009	.085	.381	.778	.229	.310	.345	.655

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.639	.183	.045	.229	.437	1.131	.261	.340	.490	.830
Seiya Suzuki	4.6	.644	.201	.016	.165	.592	1.069	.260	.361	.444	.805
Michael Busch	4.5	.608	.170	.021	.178	.548	1.032	.253	.356	.447	.803
Alex Bregman	4.4	.655	.184	.008	.154	.509	.615	.264	.361	.439	.800
Ian Happ	4.3	.524	.161	.011	.129	.586	1.101	.228	.342	.385	.727
Nico Hoerner	4.2	.833	.175	.014	.056	.312	.377	.285	.349	.383	.731
Michael Conforto	4.0	.528	.144	.007	.136	.477	1.008	.232	.335	.394	.728
Pedro Ramírez	3.9	.705	.146	.032	.078	.276	.738	.266	.325	.388	.713
Carson Kelly	3.8	.593	.123	.006	.105	.386	.699	.244	.329	.376	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections