Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Ryan Gusto vs Kevin Gausman · 62°F

6.1% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

44.1%

Chicago Cubs win

55.9%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.53

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 4.10)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.43)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.53

Over

65.7%

Under

34.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	44.1%	+158	+127
Chicago Cubs	55.9%	-173	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ryan Gusto RHP · Miami Marlins	3.8	3.2	4.0	1.5	1.9
Kevin Gausman RHP · Chicago Cubs	5.5	5.4	5.2	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Ryan Gusto4+ 41%6+ 9%8+ 1%

Kevin Gausman4+ 81%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.880	.198	.041	.093	.294	.712	.276	.326	.404	.730
Kyle Stowers	4.6	.559	.180	.028	.190	.409	1.443	.231	.306	.425	.731
Heriberto Hernández	4.5	.578	.160	.015	.189	.416	1.282	.233	.309	.420	.729
Griffin Conine	4.4	.570	.152	.009	.187	.393	1.388	.231	.305	.415	.720
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.741	.220	.040	.083	.248	.421	.269	.314	.406	.720
Jakob Marsee	4.2	.566	.143	.038	.091	.468	.939	.229	.324	.363	.686
Agustín Ramírez	4.1	.537	.183	.012	.138	.302	.917	.232	.295	.398	.692
Graham Pauley	4.0	.501	.156	.017	.124	.299	.963	.219	.283	.373	.656
Joe Mack	3.8	.522	.126	.008	.143	.265	1.042	.225	.283	.386	.669

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.644	.181	.043	.219	.396	1.096	.260	.334	.481	.814
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.637	.190	.015	.177	.547	1.064	.259	.354	.449	.803
Michael Busch	4.4	.598	.168	.019	.170	.526	.972	.250	.350	.437	.787
Michael Conforto	4.3	.567	.161	.006	.151	.492	1.036	.235	.333	.401	.734
Ian Happ	4.2	.530	.170	.011	.130	.552	1.053	.232	.340	.394	.734
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.829	.185	.013	.051	.283	.344	.286	.345	.384	.728
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.709	.149	.032	.086	.281	.696	.265	.324	.393	.717
Dansby Swanson	3.9	.562	.130	.022	.126	.386	.890	.242	.322	.401	.723
Miguel Amaya	3.8	.547	.146	.007	.097	.313	.832	.237	.315	.370	.686

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections