Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Janson Junk vs Shota Imanaga · 59°F

6.1% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

41.3%

Chicago Cubs win

58.7%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

8.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.85)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.48)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

8.33

Over

64.2%

Under

35.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	41.3%	+178	+142
Chicago Cubs	58.7%	-196	-142

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Janson Junk RHP · Miami Marlins	4.6	3.2	5.1	1.4	2.3
Shota Imanaga LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.5	5.1	5.1	1.1	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Janson Junk4+ 41%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Shota Imanaga4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heriberto Hernández	4.6	.582	.162	.015	.218	.371	1.316	.230	.298	.430	.727
Otto Lopez	4.5	.846	.180	.037	.097	.240	.668	.273	.316	.401	.717
Kyle Stowers	4.4	.544	.167	.023	.196	.341	1.382	.231	.300	.430	.730
Javier Sanoja	4.3	.733	.218	.038	.097	.208	.409	.266	.304	.409	.713
Agustín Ramírez	4.2	.578	.188	.014	.150	.268	.936	.238	.293	.409	.702
Esteury Ruiz	4.1	.545	.154	.018	.102	.277	1.154	.218	.285	.350	.634
Griffin Conine	4.0	.501	.141	.008	.189	.311	1.260	.230	.297	.428	.725
Deyvison De Los Santos	3.9	.578	.142	.009	.138	.164	.894	.235	.273	.390	.664
Jared Serna	3.8	.541	.137	.008	.080	.209	.722	.218	.267	.330	.597

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.6	.676	.199	.048	.223	.347	.977	.273	.337	.502	.839
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.675	.208	.014	.174	.469	.956	.269	.350	.459	.809
Michael Busch	4.4	.619	.191	.019	.171	.461	.900	.259	.348	.452	.800
Michael Conforto	4.3	.594	.176	.007	.155	.427	.959	.245	.330	.417	.747
Ian Happ	4.2	.556	.179	.012	.135	.487	.980	.242	.337	.408	.746
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.853	.179	.013	.051	.248	.315	.290	.341	.385	.727
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.734	.155	.034	.081	.232	.637	.272	.321	.398	.719
Carson Kelly	3.9	.624	.135	.008	.113	.349	.602	.254	.330	.396	.726
Dansby Swanson	3.7	.571	.129	.023	.119	.314	.807	.249	.317	.406	.723

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections