Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Tyler Phillips vs Matthew Boyd · 62°F

6.0% edge · Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins win

40.5%

Chicago Cubs win

59.6%

Fair line (home)

-147

Proj. total

8.35

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Miami Marlins (mean 3.82)Chicago Cubs (mean 4.53)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.35

Over

52.0%

Under

36.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Miami Marlins	40.5%	+184	+147
Chicago Cubs	59.6%	-203	-147

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tyler Phillips RHP · Miami Marlins	3.2	2.4	3.6	1.6	1.7
Matthew Boyd LHP · Chicago Cubs	5.5	4.3	5.2	1.5	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Tyler Phillips4+ 22%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Matthew Boyd4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Miami Marlins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Otto Lopez	4.7	.893	.180	.043	.095	.283	.632	.279	.329	.406	.735
Heriberto Hernández	4.6	.576	.160	.014	.198	.446	1.210	.233	.315	.425	.740
Jakob Marsee	4.5	.618	.157	.041	.105	.490	.916	.236	.331	.378	.710
Javier Sanoja	4.4	.760	.222	.040	.090	.258	.394	.272	.319	.413	.732
Agustín Ramírez	4.3	.578	.186	.013	.148	.319	.881	.238	.304	.407	.711
Esteury Ruiz	4.2	.566	.160	.019	.094	.339	1.083	.226	.306	.355	.661
Deyvison De Los Santos	4.0	.613	.141	.010	.134	.196	.882	.236	.280	.384	.664
Jared Serna	3.9	.570	.154	.010	.074	.244	.718	.222	.277	.331	.609
Brian Navarreto	3.8	.509	.139	.011	.085	.191	.969	.209	.257	.326	.583

Chicago Cubs — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong	4.7	.661	.194	.044	.203	.451	1.044	.265	.346	.479	.825
Seiya Suzuki	4.5	.657	.201	.015	.156	.583	1.010	.261	.361	.439	.800
Michael Busch	4.4	.620	.183	.021	.154	.564	.955	.257	.361	.437	.798
Michael Conforto	4.3	.583	.174	.006	.132	.530	.989	.239	.342	.394	.735
Ian Happ	4.2	.546	.167	.012	.125	.589	1.034	.236	.349	.393	.743
Nico Hoerner	4.1	.832	.185	.012	.050	.315	.337	.287	.351	.383	.735
Pedro Ramírez	4.0	.730	.156	.031	.076	.300	.698	.270	.332	.392	.724
Carson Kelly	3.9	.615	.141	.007	.104	.408	.676	.251	.337	.386	.723
Dansby Swanson	3.8	.554	.132	.021	.112	.396	.850	.243	.326	.393	.719

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections