Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Grant Holmes vs Anthony Kay · 69°F

3.1% edge · Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves win

53.1%

Chicago White Sox win

46.9%

Fair line (home)

+113

Proj. total

9.31

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Atlanta Braves (mean 4.94)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.37)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.31

Over

54.1%

Under

45.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Atlanta Braves	53.1%	-104	-113
Chicago White Sox	46.9%	-104	+113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Grant Holmes RHP · Atlanta Braves	4.7	4.5	4.7	2.2	2.3
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.8	3.7	5.2	1.8	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Grant Holmes4+ 68%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Anthony Kay4+ 52%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Atlanta Braves — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ronald Acuña Jr.	4.9	.757	.182	.019	.204	.681	.953	.281	.391	.482	.873
Drake Baldwin	4.8	.804	.168	.012	.198	.477	.802	.279	.359	.464	.823
Matt Olson	4.7	.606	.200	.007	.237	.570	1.055	.259	.356	.487	.843
Ozzie Albies	4.6	.728	.188	.008	.142	.314	.631	.255	.318	.406	.724
Lane Thomas	4.5	.599	.191	.008	.141	.429	1.082	.237	.320	.396	.716
Michael Harris II	4.3	.760	.188	.027	.175	.197	.776	.280	.318	.466	.784
Mauricio Dubón	4.2	.775	.189	.014	.081	.242	.498	.267	.314	.383	.697
Austin Riley	4.1	.589	.161	.011	.168	.334	1.107	.250	.321	.434	.756
Sean Murphy	4.0	.478	.141	.007	.132	.413	1.043	.216	.315	.374	.688

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.821	.183	.025	.096	.418	.781	.276	.364	.404	.768
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.481	.119	.003	.291	.693	1.362	.236	.358	.499	.857
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.543	.201	.012	.190	.537	.826	.247	.347	.455	.802
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.669	.153	.016	.147	.389	.876	.253	.324	.414	.737
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.629	.155	.032	.113	.372	1.106	.245	.319	.392	.710
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.481	.135	.007	.207	.349	1.240	.224	.301	.432	.733
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.684	.149	.003	.081	.435	.751	.261	.349	.374	.723
Tristan Peters	3.9	.610	.163	.021	.088	.323	.782	.251	.320	.385	.704
Drew Romo	3.8	.506	.117	.005	.120	.217	.957	.214	.267	.353	.620

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections