Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 7, 2026 · Payton Tolle vs Noah Schultz · 73°F

0.4% edge · Chicago White Sox

Boston Red Sox win

52.9%

Chicago White Sox win

47.1%

Fair line (home)

+112

Proj. total

8.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.64)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.11)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.74

Over

45.9%

Under

54.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	52.9%	-119	-112
Chicago White Sox	47.1%	+110	+112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Anthony Seigler	4.9	.660	.190	.019	.074	.643	1.013	.224	.335	.331	.665
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.8	.760	.222	.033	.135	.294	.952	.260	.317	.416	.734
Wilyer Abreu	4.7	.656	.201	.014	.174	.586	1.009	.257	.355	.443	.798
Willson Contreras	4.6	.605	.179	.020	.197	.548	1.073	.259	.372	.468	.840
Romy Gonzalez	4.5	.754	.199	.030	.132	.309	1.029	.271	.328	.431	.759
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.678	.211	.017	.084	.378	.503	.257	.343	.386	.729
Jarren Duran	4.2	.562	.205	.058	.116	.403	1.016	.249	.330	.425	.755
Andruw Monasterio	4.1	.642	.187	.008	.070	.441	.897	.249	.337	.361	.699
Connor Wong	4.0	.608	.188	.009	.084	.348	.940	.246	.322	.372	.693

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.605	.196	.017	.179	.559	.893	.248	.347	.440	.787
Randal Grichuk	4.5	.673	.197	.009	.191	.282	.982	.255	.308	.444	.752
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.513	.141	.010	.223	.395	1.338	.226	.308	.437	.745
Chase Meidroth	4.3	.755	.156	.006	.076	.472	.754	.263	.353	.368	.721
Sam Antonacci	4.2	.758	.152	.030	.053	.401	.739	.272	.364	.373	.737
Junior Perez	4.1	.485	.147	.023	.114	.363	1.377	.207	.281	.351	.632
Kyle Teel	4.0	.629	.140	.007	.112	.450	1.013	.254	.344	.394	.738
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.732	.150	.014	.053	.242	.703	.264	.314	.357	.671
Tristan Peters	3.7	.574	.160	.014	.082	.325	.831	.245	.316	.373	.689

Data notes: home starter Noah Schultz: only 38 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections