Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 24, 2026 · Spencer Arrighetti vs Davis Martin · 74°F

3.7% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

49.2%

Chicago White Sox win

50.8%

Fair line (home)

-103

Proj. total

9.6

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.86)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.73)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.6

Over

45.6%

Under

44.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	49.2%	+115	+103
Chicago White Sox	50.8%	-125	-103

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.9	.855	.213	.011	.155	.314	.821	.275	.333	.431	.764
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.726	.213	.007	.290	.658	.784	.307	.412	.579	.991
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.617	.177	.007	.207	.537	.745	.251	.355	.454	.809
Jose Altuve	4.5	.736	.174	.012	.164	.407	.800	.265	.336	.433	.769
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.5	.579	.133	.013	.124	.644	1.061	.226	.346	.367	.713
Christian Walker	4.3	.544	.161	.009	.209	.387	1.041	.237	.316	.444	.759
Lucas Spence	4.2	.560	.152	.032	.095	.376	1.167	.221	.302	.353	.654
Cam Smith	4.1	.603	.158	.023	.123	.373	.989	.246	.323	.401	.724
Christian Vázquez	4.0	.607	.135	.005	.092	.274	.760	.227	.286	.340	.626

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.781	.167	.029	.085	.575	.828	.269	.389	.391	.780
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.469	.098	.005	.326	.781	1.382	.238	.375	.526	.901
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.537	.177	.013	.206	.678	.851	.249	.373	.467	.840
Colson Montgomery	4.4	.466	.133	.009	.251	.480	1.341	.225	.326	.463	.789
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.609	.144	.021	.166	.463	.897	.249	.336	.430	.766
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.562	.156	.014	.106	.449	1.202	.229	.321	.365	.687
Tristan Peters	4.1	.588	.164	.019	.097	.411	.915	.241	.326	.378	.704
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.637	.127	.003	.080	.525	.774	.252	.362	.362	.725
Drew Romo	3.8	.499	.119	.007	.127	.297	1.028	.215	.286	.362	.648

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections