Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Ronel Blanco vs Erick Fedde · 82°F

7.1% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

57.8%

Chicago White Sox win

42.2%

Fair line (home)

+137

Proj. total

10.03

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.53)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.50)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

10.03

Over

49.5%

Under

50.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	57.8%	-107	-137
Chicago White Sox	42.2%	-101	+137

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	5.0	.901	.230	.011	.172	.344	.752	.288	.347	.456	.803
Yordan Alvarez	4.9	.740	.214	.009	.354	.725	.712	.322	.430	.639	1.069
Isaac Paredes	4.8	.641	.176	.007	.249	.589	.681	.262	.367	.492	.859
Jose Altuve	4.7	.745	.177	.014	.196	.452	.732	.271	.347	.461	.807
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.5	.583	.143	.012	.146	.720	1.007	.234	.362	.394	.756
Yainer Diaz	4.4	.765	.192	.011	.197	.215	.676	.278	.316	.469	.785
Taylor Trammell	4.3	.491	.155	.021	.174	.525	1.225	.224	.325	.416	.742
Cam Smith	4.2	.609	.168	.019	.151	.407	.952	.252	.331	.428	.759
Zach Dezenzo	4.1	.573	.156	.007	.128	.431	1.099	.238	.324	.391	.714

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.793	.170	.025	.092	.524	.846	.268	.370	.391	.762
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.482	.103	.004	.326	.736	1.409	.240	.367	.526	.892
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.537	.176	.013	.211	.619	.873	.247	.358	.466	.825
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.601	.168	.016	.121	.444	1.257	.234	.318	.379	.697
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.617	.143	.021	.165	.431	.908	.249	.328	.428	.756
Tristan Peters	4.1	.591	.168	.020	.112	.396	.932	.239	.318	.386	.703
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.649	.134	.004	.088	.510	.808	.251	.353	.367	.720
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.719	.143	.012	.070	.260	.745	.258	.311	.362	.673
Drew Romo	3.8	.499	.126	.008	.136	.276	1.026	.220	.284	.376	.660

Data notes: away starter Ronel Blanco: only 15 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Ronel Blanco: only 4 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections