Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 25, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Sean Burke · 75°F

10.1% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

57.3%

Chicago White Sox win

42.8%

Fair line (home)

+134

Proj. total

9.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.15)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.19)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.33

Over

52.9%

Under

47.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	57.3%	+108	-134
Chicago White Sox	42.8%	-117	+134

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.9	.830	.204	.012	.163	.354	.881	.270	.335	.431	.765
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.668	.191	.006	.318	.753	.840	.297	.417	.587	1.004
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.603	.156	.005	.225	.604	.800	.248	.360	.458	.819
Jose Altuve	4.6	.691	.166	.013	.181	.466	.858	.257	.338	.436	.774
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.5	.548	.127	.012	.142	.706	1.137	.223	.353	.377	.731
Christian Walker	4.4	.504	.153	.009	.241	.435	1.076	.234	.320	.464	.784
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.696	.168	.009	.195	.212	.746	.265	.306	.457	.763
Lucas Spence	4.1	.511	.145	.025	.091	.418	1.215	.210	.301	.338	.639
Cam Smith	4.0	.549	.138	.020	.134	.403	1.027	.235	.321	.397	.718

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.791	.168	.024	.075	.485	.907	.263	.364	.373	.737
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.478	.108	.004	.276	.677	1.513	.226	.348	.473	.821
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.547	.180	.012	.171	.579	.914	.239	.348	.428	.776
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.489	.124	.008	.216	.392	1.434	.217	.301	.421	.722
Andrew Benintendi	4.2	.631	.139	.017	.143	.396	.961	.245	.320	.403	.724
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.563	.156	.019	.098	.393	1.260	.227	.309	.360	.669
Tristan Peters	4.0	.574	.161	.022	.082	.363	.971	.232	.308	.357	.664
Chase Meidroth	3.9	.630	.126	.004	.071	.453	.839	.245	.341	.347	.687
Edgar Quero	3.8	.587	.115	.005	.079	.340	.896	.233	.312	.340	.652

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections