New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · Max Fried vs Noah Schultz · 73°F

3.1% edge · Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees win

53.9%

Chicago White Sox win

46.1%

Fair line (home)

+117

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.45)Chicago White Sox (mean 3.84)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.29

Over

43.8%

Under

56.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	53.9%	-139	-117
Chicago White Sox	46.1%	+128	+117

New York Yankees — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Max Schuemann	4.8	.663	.156	.014	.081	.657	1.106	.223	.344	.327	.672
Ben Rice	4.7	.559	.150	.018	.276	.632	.987	.249	.360	.501	.861
Paul Goldschmidt	4.6	.689	.182	.011	.164	.476	1.010	.255	.338	.424	.762
Jasson Domínguez	4.5	.675	.162	.006	.138	.451	1.022	.244	.328	.390	.717
Anthony Volpe	4.4	.577	.175	.024	.122	.460	.988	.230	.316	.380	.697
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.548	.127	.016	.193	.523	1.107	.237	.337	.435	.771
José Caballero	4.2	.570	.148	.009	.095	.450	.998	.225	.325	.348	.673
Spencer Jones	4.1	.475	.139	.007	.164	.415	1.493	.216	.302	.394	.696
Ali Sánchez	4.0	.576	.125	.005	.081	.352	.957	.220	.296	.325	.621

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Randal Grichuk	4.5	.677	.202	.010	.176	.243	.959	.250	.297	.426	.723
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.511	.115	.006	.235	.601	1.360	.228	.338	.447	.786
Miguel Vargas	4.3	.562	.184	.014	.146	.507	.799	.240	.338	.413	.750
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.516	.143	.008	.185	.339	1.274	.223	.297	.409	.706
Chase Meidroth	4.1	.730	.145	.004	.065	.429	.779	.258	.343	.354	.697
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.601	.166	.012	.082	.315	1.122	.234	.302	.353	.655
Everson Pereira	3.9	.504	.136	.008	.143	.298	1.210	.222	.291	.385	.676
Edgar Quero	3.8	.657	.123	.003	.068	.283	.786	.247	.314	.343	.658
Luisangel Acuña	3.7	.678	.143	.014	.045	.200	.659	.255	.300	.344	.645

Data notes: home starter Noah Schultz: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Max Fried: only 61 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections