New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

July 28, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Anthony Kay · 67°F

0.2% edge · Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees win

52.0%

Chicago White Sox win

48.0%

Fair line (home)

+108

Proj. total

8.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.53)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.11)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.64

Over

47.6%

Under

44.5%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	52.0%	-114	-108
Chicago White Sox	48.0%	+105	+108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	4.8	.769	.192	.014	.156	.429	.996	.259	.331	.416	.747
Ben Rice	4.7	.588	.170	.024	.255	.559	.947	.253	.353	.493	.846
Amed Rosario	4.6	.848	.184	.028	.111	.247	.820	.271	.317	.404	.721
Jasson Domínguez	4.5	.724	.161	.004	.134	.402	.964	.252	.327	.393	.719
Trent Grisham	4.4	.513	.146	.017	.176	.630	.888	.228	.345	.417	.762
Anthony Volpe	4.3	.598	.176	.024	.113	.386	.917	.235	.310	.380	.690
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.2	.570	.123	.017	.176	.457	1.036	.240	.331	.426	.756
Max Schuemann	4.1	.577	.131	.013	.064	.492	.892	.224	.331	.324	.655
Austin Wells	4.0	.472	.139	.007	.147	.415	.950	.218	.308	.388	.696

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.5	.804	.168	.027	.085	.390	.794	.269	.353	.387	.740
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.482	.104	.004	.310	.568	1.365	.234	.337	.505	.842
Miguel Vargas	4.3	.550	.182	.015	.186	.479	.817	.244	.336	.446	.782
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.482	.135	.010	.237	.320	1.283	.224	.293	.448	.741
Andrew Benintendi	4.1	.637	.143	.018	.140	.331	.834	.248	.312	.406	.719
Braden Montgomery	4.0	.573	.156	.015	.102	.329	1.139	.231	.301	.366	.667
Tristan Peters	3.9	.589	.168	.019	.091	.288	.852	.241	.302	.374	.676
Chase Meidroth	3.8	.638	.135	.003	.076	.376	.739	.253	.335	.362	.697
Drew Romo	3.7	.499	.115	.008	.123	.202	.952	.217	.267	.362	.630

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections