Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Nick Lodolo vs Sean Burke · 75°F

8.4% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

48.8%

Chicago White Sox win

51.2%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

9.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.88)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.70)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.58

Over

63.9%

Under

36.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	48.8%	+143	+105
Chicago White Sox	51.2%	-156	-105

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.9	.676	.192	.045	.220	.543	1.300	.265	.353	.485	.838
Sal Stewart	4.8	.656	.208	.003	.231	.527	.957	.262	.349	.479	.828
JJ Bleday	4.6	.519	.175	.015	.238	.646	1.016	.238	.348	.470	.818
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.606	.169	.005	.162	.538	1.213	.238	.336	.406	.742
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.487	.147	.003	.273	.439	1.354	.232	.319	.479	.799
Héctor Rodríguez	4.3	.652	.136	.027	.184	.312	.894	.251	.310	.438	.749
Dane Myers	4.2	.647	.136	.005	.125	.387	1.069	.242	.320	.380	.700
Matt McLain	4.1	.510	.152	.004	.143	.481	1.114	.226	.326	.391	.717
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.0	.627	.132	.019	.091	.303	.774	.238	.302	.360	.662

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brenton Doyle	4.7	.730	.185	.018	.163	.315	1.269	.255	.312	.420	.732
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.511	.113	.005	.324	.630	1.339	.247	.361	.532	.893
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.573	.196	.014	.198	.536	.811	.257	.361	.471	.832
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.641	.197	.008	.203	.245	.922	.262	.315	.467	.782
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.625	.180	.012	.117	.333	1.153	.245	.320	.391	.710
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.473	.134	.008	.247	.355	1.205	.236	.322	.480	.802
Edgar Quero	4.0	.682	.131	.004	.099	.311	.827	.254	.330	.375	.705
Sam Antonacci	3.9	.678	.147	.023	.070	.366	.640	.275	.380	.397	.776
Luisangel Acuña	3.8	.726	.147	.013	.063	.219	.680	.269	.319	.372	.691

Data notes: away starter Nick Lodolo: only 70 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections