Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 12, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs Luis Castillo · 74°F

2.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

44.4%

Chicago White Sox win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 4.37)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.71)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.09

Over

51.6%

Under

48.4%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	44.4%	+133	+125
Chicago White Sox	55.6%	-144	-125

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	4.7	.666	.197	.042	.203	.427	1.293	.259	.331	.467	.797
Sal Stewart	4.6	.671	.205	.003	.203	.416	.948	.259	.331	.455	.786
JJ Bleday	4.5	.528	.173	.013	.213	.536	1.030	.234	.329	.445	.774
Eugenio Suárez	4.4	.495	.147	.004	.257	.369	1.365	.227	.302	.459	.761
Michael Toglia	4.3	.455	.130	.014	.203	.380	1.468	.205	.279	.401	.680
Héctor Rodríguez	4.2	.644	.141	.023	.156	.260	.890	.246	.297	.413	.711
Jose Trevino	4.1	.659	.155	.004	.112	.228	.665	.243	.290	.373	.663
TJ Friedl	4.0	.583	.128	.014	.103	.379	.790	.235	.322	.367	.689
Matt McLain	3.9	.488	.142	.004	.119	.379	1.069	.219	.304	.367	.671

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.855	.182	.026	.090	.488	.713	.286	.385	.412	.796
Munetaka Murakami	4.6	.525	.114	.006	.313	.695	1.261	.250	.371	.529	.899
Andrew Benintendi	4.5	.709	.164	.021	.163	.433	.798	.265	.341	.439	.779
Braden Montgomery	4.3	.661	.185	.020	.118	.417	1.105	.254	.333	.403	.735
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.500	.148	.009	.234	.401	1.189	.236	.321	.467	.787
Chase Meidroth	4.1	.733	.152	.004	.080	.480	.720	.269	.363	.380	.743
Tristan Peters	4.0	.643	.178	.018	.096	.367	.792	.258	.333	.397	.729
Brenton Doyle	3.9	.619	.158	.018	.133	.302	1.006	.259	.320	.424	.744
Drew Romo	3.8	.556	.136	.010	.129	.267	.886	.238	.300	.394	.694

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections