New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Christian Scott vs Luis Castillo · 70°F

3.2% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

52.4%

Chicago White Sox win

47.6%

Fair line (home)

+110

Proj. total

8.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.51)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.08)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.59

Over

46.2%

Under

53.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	52.4%	-101	-110
Chicago White Sox	47.6%	-108	+110

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Christian Scott RHP · New York Mets	4.7	5.2	4.2	1.8	2.0
Luis Castillo RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.1	4.4	5.2	1.5	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Christian Scott4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Luis Castillo4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.806	.198	.026	.093	.408	1.108	.258	.326	.380	.706
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.682	.155	.025	.206	.423	.821	.256	.335	.453	.788
Bo Bichette	4.6	.824	.199	.015	.143	.291	.747	.278	.328	.433	.760
Carson Benge	4.5	.733	.164	.027	.152	.334	.914	.264	.327	.429	.756
Jared Young	4.3	.610	.165	.024	.189	.349	.932	.251	.322	.449	.770
Luis Robert Jr.	4.2	.582	.144	.006	.174	.323	1.147	.234	.299	.409	.707
Brett Baty	4.1	.598	.136	.012	.146	.342	1.053	.237	.306	.397	.702
Marcus Semien	4.0	.556	.133	.011	.143	.341	.748	.231	.301	.391	.692
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.497	.124	.006	.201	.369	.995	.237	.316	.448	.764

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.744	.170	.023	.097	.409	.857	.258	.351	.385	.736
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.442	.109	.002	.284	.659	1.462	.223	.344	.479	.823
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.520	.178	.011	.191	.519	.894	.238	.338	.442	.780
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.630	.146	.016	.144	.390	.941	.244	.317	.403	.720
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.579	.153	.029	.114	.363	1.182	.234	.311	.382	.692
Colson Montgomery	4.0	.430	.120	.007	.206	.340	1.328	.210	.289	.416	.705
Chase Meidroth	3.9	.629	.138	.003	.085	.435	.820	.248	.340	.363	.704
Tristan Peters	3.8	.558	.156	.019	.091	.314	.831	.238	.308	.373	.682
Drew Romo	3.7	.466	.107	.006	.112	.221	1.009	.201	.259	.334	.593

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections