New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Sean Burke · 74°F

7.6% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

50.6%

Chicago White Sox win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.54)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.8

Over

48.9%

Under

43.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	50.6%	+128	-102
Chicago White Sox	49.4%	-139	+102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.3	4.4	4.0	1.6	2.0
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.2	5.1	5.0	2.0	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Sean Manaea4+ 67%6+ 28%8+ 7%

Sean Burke4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Ewing	4.8	.762	.191	.024	.096	.476	1.209	.249	.329	.372	.700
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.665	.146	.025	.210	.479	.903	.252	.341	.452	.793
Bo Bichette	4.6	.801	.194	.015	.148	.334	.817	.274	.331	.431	.762
Carson Benge	4.5	.698	.160	.026	.150	.391	.992	.256	.330	.421	.751
Jared Young	4.4	.594	.150	.023	.186	.413	1.019	.244	.326	.438	.764
Luis Robert Jr.	4.3	.551	.133	.004	.191	.366	1.225	.228	.302	.414	.716
Brett Baty	4.2	.567	.129	.011	.150	.387	1.126	.229	.307	.390	.697
Marcus Semien	4.0	.534	.124	.013	.149	.404	.804	.227	.309	.392	.700
Francisco Alvarez	3.9	.467	.120	.007	.197	.421	1.080	.228	.319	.437	.757

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.6	.762	.160	.004	.104	.517	.862	.259	.353	.379	.733
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.463	.115	.004	.291	.672	1.389	.233	.356	.499	.855
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.517	.184	.011	.202	.543	.830	.243	.348	.459	.807
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.601	.197	.012	.189	.264	.916	.253	.307	.453	.761
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.461	.128	.009	.222	.348	1.297	.220	.299	.437	.735
Brenton Doyle	4.0	.560	.143	.008	.132	.277	1.179	.225	.283	.374	.657
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.730	.150	.013	.059	.234	.733	.260	.310	.355	.665
Jake Rogers	3.8	.434	.116	.018	.138	.379	1.126	.208	.295	.375	.669
Tristan Peters	3.7	.530	.149	.022	.093	.318	.763	.238	.312	.380	.692

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections