New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Sean Newcomb · 70°F

2.2% edge · Chicago White Sox

New York Mets win

47.3%

Chicago White Sox win

52.7%

Fair line (home)

-111

Proj. total

8.21

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.07)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.14)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.21

Over

42.8%

Under

57.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	47.3%	-102	+111
Chicago White Sox	52.7%	-106	-111

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.3	5.8	4.7	2.5	2.3
Sean Newcomb LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.2	2.2	2.0	0.8	0.7

Strikeout ladder

Nolan McLean4+ 85%6+ 54%8+ 22%

Sean Newcomb4+ 15%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.685	.156	.021	.175	.469	.922	.247	.336	.419	.756
Bo Bichette	4.6	.820	.188	.016	.124	.353	.819	.270	.330	.409	.738
Carson Benge	4.5	.733	.152	.031	.131	.408	.983	.257	.333	.406	.738
Luis Robert Jr.	4.4	.581	.148	.005	.163	.377	1.257	.224	.297	.385	.682
Eric Wagaman	4.3	.618	.160	.019	.113	.328	1.014	.229	.293	.365	.658
Christopher Morel	4.2	.487	.138	.009	.171	.418	1.277	.215	.302	.393	.695
Marcus Semien	4.1	.558	.122	.012	.126	.397	.795	.223	.303	.365	.669
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.640	.159	.020	.064	.389	.998	.247	.325	.357	.682
Luis Torrens	3.9	.537	.151	.006	.113	.300	.834	.228	.297	.370	.667

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.781	.174	.022	.078	.445	.843	.265	.367	.379	.745
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.465	.112	.004	.236	.736	1.452	.219	.354	.440	.794
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.526	.190	.011	.161	.575	.898	.235	.346	.419	.765
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.658	.155	.014	.128	.440	.920	.249	.332	.397	.729
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.597	.155	.029	.093	.407	1.185	.235	.321	.367	.688
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.439	.123	.006	.184	.380	1.337	.207	.296	.397	.693
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.635	.138	.004	.075	.469	.816	.247	.347	.355	.701
Tristan Peters	3.9	.572	.164	.021	.075	.334	.844	.239	.313	.363	.676
Jake Rogers	3.8	.418	.111	.022	.111	.383	1.165	.199	.290	.345	.635

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections