Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 25, 2026 · Jacob deGrom vs Anthony Kay · 73°F

4.6% edge · Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers win

55.3%

Chicago White Sox win

44.7%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

8.39

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.57)Chicago White Sox (mean 3.82)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.39

Over

52.5%

Under

36.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	55.3%	-107	-124
Chicago White Sox	44.7%	-101	+124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.2	6.4	4.4	1.4	1.9
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	3.8	5.0	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Jacob deGrom4+ 91%6+ 63%8+ 31%

Anthony Kay4+ 55%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.8	.631	.222	.013	.148	.448	.909	.236	.319	.397	.716
Corey Seager	4.7	.696	.184	.005	.222	.539	.875	.269	.361	.478	.839
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.652	.184	.023	.183	.527	.958	.260	.353	.454	.807
Brandon Nimmo	4.5	.706	.175	.020	.154	.455	.879	.266	.353	.437	.790
Ezequiel Duran	4.4	.682	.196	.022	.114	.264	.968	.249	.303	.392	.695
Jake Burger	4.3	.602	.166	.006	.192	.285	1.015	.247	.309	.439	.748
Logan O'Hoppe	4.2	.589	.130	.008	.136	.309	1.024	.227	.294	.373	.667
Cody Freeman	4.0	.653	.173	.008	.113	.234	.581	.250	.299	.390	.689
Danny Jansen	3.9	.448	.141	.011	.133	.443	.880	.214	.318	.379	.697

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.5	.756	.177	.022	.097	.317	.883	.261	.332	.388	.719
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.451	.109	.002	.291	.540	1.536	.224	.324	.483	.807
Miguel Vargas	4.3	.514	.174	.010	.193	.436	.939	.234	.319	.437	.756
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.592	.166	.034	.124	.298	1.251	.239	.300	.396	.696
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.447	.125	.008	.214	.278	1.411	.212	.275	.421	.696
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.665	.144	.004	.087	.370	.860	.253	.329	.369	.698
Tristan Peters	3.9	.564	.161	.021	.095	.257	.886	.236	.292	.372	.665
Brenton Doyle	3.7	.507	.126	.008	.116	.217	1.185	.217	.265	.357	.622
Drew Romo	3.6	.460	.114	.006	.113	.168	1.011	.204	.248	.341	.588

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections