Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

August 26, 2026 · MacKenzie Gore vs Sean Burke · 72°F

5.2% edge · Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers win

52.1%

Chicago White Sox win

47.9%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

8.61

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Texas Rangers (mean 4.53)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.08)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.61

Over

46.8%

Under

45.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Texas Rangers	52.1%	+109	-109
Chicago White Sox	47.9%	-118	+109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.2	6.1	4.7	2.2	2.2
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.2	5.1	4.9	2.2	2.5

Strikeout ladder

MacKenzie Gore4+ 88%6+ 59%8+ 27%

Sean Burke4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.8	.565	.136	.021	.260	.609	1.151	.239	.347	.471	.819
Corey Seager	4.7	.633	.160	.003	.242	.577	.993	.255	.352	.473	.826
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.588	.164	.018	.211	.540	1.090	.245	.341	.453	.794
Brandon Nimmo	4.5	.657	.166	.022	.166	.465	1.020	.256	.343	.434	.777
Ezequiel Duran	4.4	.635	.198	.021	.126	.281	1.099	.242	.298	.395	.693
Evan Carter	4.3	.531	.142	.028	.132	.500	1.031	.224	.325	.384	.709
Justin Foscue	4.2	.499	.166	.011	.140	.392	.901	.220	.303	.384	.687
Elias Díaz	4.0	.538	.143	.004	.126	.263	1.035	.217	.275	.358	.633
Cody Freeman	3.9	.600	.150	.005	.116	.246	.633	.239	.292	.378	.670

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.544	.211	.010	.192	.580	.949	.243	.347	.447	.794
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.457	.111	.004	.276	.668	1.470	.225	.346	.477	.823
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.629	.208	.012	.191	.274	1.018	.257	.310	.456	.765
Chase Meidroth	4.3	.713	.158	.004	.086	.484	.880	.259	.351	.373	.724
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.599	.159	.023	.115	.349	1.195	.239	.312	.386	.698
Brenton Doyle	4.0	.564	.143	.008	.121	.282	1.230	.223	.280	.362	.642
Jake Rogers	3.9	.449	.117	.019	.134	.394	1.233	.205	.291	.364	.655
Tristan Peters	3.8	.564	.159	.022	.084	.330	.818	.240	.313	.371	.684
Luisangel Acuña	3.7	.682	.139	.012	.052	.209	.752	.255	.302	.347	.649

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections