Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Zebby Matthews vs Erick Fedde · 88°F

2.4% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

50.0%

Chicago White Sox win

50.0%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

9.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 5.13)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.83)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.96

Over

49.0%

Under

40.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	50.0%	+106	+100
Chicago White Sox	50.0%	-115	-100

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zebby Matthews RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.4	4.9	5.9	1.8	2.9
Erick Fedde RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.1	2.7	4.7	1.5	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Zebby Matthews4+ 73%6+ 38%8+ 12%

Erick Fedde4+ 28%6+ 5%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.9	.866	.220	.012	.126	.474	.691	.283	.366	.428	.794
Brooks Lee	4.8	.786	.172	.029	.191	.310	.694	.265	.317	.446	.763
Kody Clemens	4.7	.597	.159	.050	.243	.341	.958	.246	.308	.477	.785
Ryan Jeffers	4.5	.655	.189	.016	.209	.502	.761	.269	.360	.482	.842
Josh Bell	4.4	.685	.161	.012	.187	.433	.765	.263	.341	.451	.792
Trevor Larnach	4.3	.671	.175	.012	.159	.461	.813	.265	.348	.441	.788
Royce Lewis	4.2	.605	.173	.007	.215	.359	.855	.260	.327	.477	.804
Kaelen Culpepper	4.1	.647	.151	.020	.155	.298	.809	.258	.320	.432	.752
Walker Jenkins	4.0	.635	.170	.029	.120	.395	.734	.267	.346	.433	.779

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.881	.195	.026	.100	.356	.740	.287	.360	.418	.778
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.647	.217	.012	.205	.466	.777	.267	.350	.479	.829
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.532	.128	.003	.312	.546	1.305	.253	.350	.530	.879
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.727	.177	.014	.166	.309	.792	.271	.327	.448	.775
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.548	.148	.007	.242	.302	1.235	.244	.307	.473	.780
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.664	.181	.033	.123	.296	.951	.265	.325	.427	.752
Tristan Peters	4.0	.660	.186	.025	.121	.272	.728	.268	.323	.429	.753
Chase Meidroth	3.9	.733	.163	.003	.082	.347	.682	.279	.350	.396	.746
Kyle Teel	3.8	.640	.138	.004	.135	.339	.944	.268	.340	.429	.769

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections