Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Taj Bradley vs Anthony Kay · 73°F

0.7% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

48.1%

Chicago White Sox win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.49)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.96

Over

49.9%

Under

50.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	48.1%	+107	+108
Chicago White Sox	51.9%	-116	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Taj Bradley RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.3	5.7	5.0	2.6	2.6
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	3.5	5.2	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Taj Bradley4+ 84%6+ 52%8+ 21%

Anthony Kay4+ 47%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.858	.215	.013	.099	.462	.693	.281	.368	.408	.776
Kaelen Culpepper	4.7	.783	.167	.023	.144	.334	.884	.261	.326	.411	.738
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.664	.195	.013	.170	.514	.790	.262	.360	.446	.805
Josh Bell	4.5	.718	.151	.008	.143	.404	.810	.253	.331	.401	.732
Royce Lewis	4.4	.647	.174	.008	.185	.355	.895	.253	.319	.439	.758
Kody Clemens	4.3	.563	.158	.044	.184	.300	.914	.241	.304	.445	.749
Brooks Lee	4.2	.670	.143	.017	.137	.252	.625	.250	.303	.402	.705
Gabriel Gonzalez	4.0	.657	.179	.019	.093	.239	.719	.252	.307	.385	.692
Ryan Kreidler	3.9	.518	.137	.024	.092	.368	1.013	.219	.302	.351	.652

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.807	.184	.025	.092	.467	.822	.273	.366	.399	.765
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.582	.198	.010	.190	.602	.862	.252	.359	.455	.814
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.459	.123	.003	.264	.689	1.402	.230	.355	.479	.833
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.678	.159	.013	.149	.401	.889	.257	.330	.420	.749
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.486	.140	.009	.212	.376	1.350	.224	.302	.434	.736
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.590	.159	.027	.106	.390	1.066	.240	.320	.385	.704
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.686	.152	.003	.080	.432	.771	.261	.348	.374	.722
Tristan Peters	3.9	.588	.166	.021	.100	.335	.786	.249	.319	.393	.713
Jake Rogers	3.8	.440	.122	.017	.126	.364	1.124	.208	.291	.366	.657

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections