Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Bailey Ober vs Bryan Hudson · 72°F

1.9% edge · Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins win

44.4%

Chicago White Sox win

55.6%

Fair line (home)

-125

Proj. total

9.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Minnesota Twins (mean 4.40)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.70)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.1

Over

51.6%

Under

48.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Minnesota Twins	44.4%	+131	+125
Chicago White Sox	55.6%	-142	-125

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bailey Ober RHP · Minnesota Twins	5.1	4.3	5.5	1.6	2.7
Bryan Hudson LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.2	1.8	2.1	0.8	0.8

Strikeout ladder

Bailey Ober4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Bryan Hudson4+ 9%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Minnesota Twins — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luke Keaschall	4.8	.796	.206	.011	.100	.490	.782	.264	.354	.389	.743
Brooks Lee	4.7	.703	.157	.022	.157	.302	.777	.239	.293	.393	.686
Ryan Jeffers	4.6	.618	.173	.013	.171	.532	.877	.246	.347	.425	.772
Josh Bell	4.5	.658	.146	.009	.150	.441	.885	.242	.325	.396	.721
Kody Clemens	4.4	.535	.149	.049	.186	.333	1.016	.231	.297	.432	.729
Royce Lewis	4.3	.588	.165	.007	.167	.375	.969	.240	.312	.417	.729
Trevor Larnach	4.2	.598	.154	.011	.129	.478	.877	.245	.337	.400	.737
Kaelen Culpepper	4.0	.615	.140	.017	.120	.302	.843	.242	.308	.387	.695
Walker Jenkins	3.9	.584	.154	.025	.102	.406	.800	.249	.333	.395	.729

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.841	.193	.027	.106	.338	.678	.282	.357	.418	.775
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.615	.209	.012	.216	.478	.730	.264	.350	.486	.836
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.494	.127	.004	.315	.544	1.259	.246	.345	.529	.874
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.712	.173	.015	.166	.309	.770	.269	.326	.446	.773
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.512	.140	.006	.247	.296	1.198	.236	.300	.469	.769
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.644	.170	.033	.129	.296	.932	.261	.322	.427	.750
Tristan Peters	4.0	.641	.179	.021	.121	.266	.716	.262	.318	.421	.739
Chase Meidroth	3.9	.702	.152	.003	.087	.329	.642	.272	.342	.392	.734
Kyle Teel	3.7	.610	.134	.006	.124	.316	.897	.259	.328	.412	.740

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections