Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 8, 2026 · Bubba Chandler vs Sean Burke · 78°F

2.9% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

46.5%

Chicago White Sox win

53.5%

Fair line (home)

-115

Proj. total

9.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.75)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.88)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.63

Over

55.8%

Under

44.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	46.5%	+125	+115
Chicago White Sox	53.5%	-135	-115

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bubba Chandler RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	4.3	4.8	2.7	2.5
Sean Burke RHP · Chicago White Sox	5.1	5.5	5.0	2.2	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Bubba Chandler4+ 63%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Sean Burke4+ 82%6+ 48%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.821	.175	.034	.131	.371	1.223	.263	.330	.407	.737
Brandon Lowe	4.7	.608	.176	.011	.244	.466	1.298	.245	.324	.464	.788
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.666	.170	.017	.153	.524	1.136	.249	.344	.413	.757
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.561	.152	.026	.209	.547	1.429	.240	.337	.451	.788
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.4	.521	.161	.009	.230	.499	1.340	.238	.332	.463	.795
Spencer Horwitz	4.3	.645	.192	.011	.128	.554	.749	.263	.366	.424	.791
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.2	.562	.154	.011	.160	.415	1.168	.236	.317	.411	.728
Jacob Gonzalez	4.1	.560	.175	.011	.137	.317	.801	.237	.303	.400	.703
Jake Mangum	4.0	.769	.153	.020	.045	.216	.748	.267	.317	.356	.673

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.834	.177	.027	.085	.519	.733	.276	.383	.396	.779
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.609	.204	.011	.183	.672	.789	.257	.374	.455	.830
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.480	.121	.003	.257	.785	1.318	.233	.372	.475	.847
Andrew Benintendi	4.4	.705	.165	.015	.146	.448	.827	.261	.341	.421	.762
Colson Montgomery	4.3	.511	.140	.007	.211	.438	1.266	.229	.320	.435	.755
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.626	.169	.029	.104	.439	.996	.250	.339	.396	.735
Tristan Peters	4.1	.639	.178	.022	.106	.406	.747	.259	.340	.407	.747
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.691	.150	.003	.073	.484	.691	.266	.365	.375	.739
Kyle Teel	3.9	.615	.133	.006	.109	.473	.964	.256	.355	.396	.751

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections