Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 10, 2026 · Jared Jones vs Hagen Smith · 68°F

1.4% edge · Chicago White Sox

Pittsburgh Pirates win

48.9%

Chicago White Sox win

51.1%

Fair line (home)

-105

Proj. total

8.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.22)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.32

Over

52.3%

Under

47.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	48.9%	-105	+105
Chicago White Sox	51.1%	-103	-105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jared Jones RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	4.5	4.9	4.0	1.9	1.9
Hagen Smith LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.1	2.7	1.8	1.2	0.7

Strikeout ladder

Jared Jones4+ 75%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Hagen Smith4+ 28%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.806	.180	.036	.104	.399	1.265	.257	.330	.386	.715
Oneil Cruz	4.7	.567	.153	.027	.174	.607	1.538	.224	.329	.402	.731
Bryan Reynolds	4.6	.652	.177	.015	.125	.524	1.171	.240	.338	.385	.723
Nick Gonzales	4.5	.804	.200	.021	.071	.350	.855	.267	.334	.378	.711
Brandon Lowe	4.4	.530	.165	.010	.176	.460	1.247	.225	.312	.407	.719
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.3	.587	.148	.013	.121	.454	1.197	.228	.316	.369	.684
Jake Mangum	4.2	.799	.169	.018	.034	.235	.819	.262	.315	.340	.655
Spencer Horwitz	4.1	.597	.171	.011	.098	.552	.734	.252	.363	.393	.756
Jared Triolo	4.0	.607	.141	.010	.061	.456	.879	.235	.330	.334	.664

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.776	.177	.025	.077	.435	.834	.264	.360	.378	.738
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.566	.190	.012	.165	.600	.882	.243	.353	.427	.779
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.451	.110	.002	.240	.679	1.441	.219	.345	.446	.791
Andrew Benintendi	4.3	.657	.159	.013	.120	.397	.923	.246	.320	.387	.707
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.453	.128	.007	.180	.378	1.378	.205	.289	.388	.677
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.573	.152	.029	.098	.374	1.076	.234	.313	.372	.685
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.668	.145	.003	.069	.438	.780	.255	.347	.358	.705
Tristan Peters	3.9	.594	.155	.022	.085	.334	.793	.246	.319	.376	.695
Jake Rogers	3.7	.426	.118	.017	.113	.372	1.142	.203	.290	.351	.641

Data notes: home starter Hagen Smith: only 21 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Hagen Smith: only 41 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections