Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 9, 2026 · Lake Bachar vs Davis Martin · 74°F

5.7% edge · Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates win

50.8%

Chicago White Sox win

49.2%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

9.16

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Pittsburgh Pirates (mean 4.77)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.39)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.16

Over

41.7%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Pittsburgh Pirates	50.8%	+117	-103
Chicago White Sox	49.2%	-127	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Lake Bachar RHP · Pittsburgh Pirates	2.1	2.2	2.1	1.0	0.9
Davis Martin RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	4.5	5.4	1.8	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Lake Bachar4+ 15%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Davis Martin4+ 67%6+ 30%8+ 8%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Pittsburgh Pirates — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Konnor Griffin	4.9	.887	.196	.038	.126	.331	1.123	.279	.339	.424	.763
Brandon Lowe	4.8	.650	.183	.013	.214	.428	1.192	.246	.320	.444	.763
Bryan Reynolds	4.7	.732	.200	.020	.140	.468	1.038	.265	.350	.425	.774
Nick Gonzales	4.5	.883	.227	.022	.074	.296	.744	.288	.345	.406	.751
Oneil Cruz	4.5	.590	.147	.024	.193	.490	1.300	.244	.333	.442	.775
Esmerlyn Valdez	4.3	.547	.167	.009	.210	.461	1.238	.244	.332	.456	.788
Spencer Horwitz	4.2	.686	.189	.011	.113	.483	.681	.270	.363	.419	.782
Rafael Flores Jr.	4.1	.606	.160	.013	.136	.387	1.051	.247	.324	.407	.731
Jacob Gonzalez	4.0	.584	.181	.012	.113	.277	.718	.241	.303	.389	.692

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.7	.777	.179	.021	.082	.501	.798	.264	.368	.380	.749
Andrew Benintendi	4.6	.711	.167	.015	.142	.466	.907	.255	.336	.408	.744
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.459	.111	.003	.236	.739	1.391	.221	.357	.446	.803
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.624	.212	.013	.164	.277	.960	.252	.307	.433	.739
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.473	.136	.007	.191	.408	1.320	.215	.304	.407	.710
Braden Montgomery	4.1	.604	.162	.028	.104	.408	1.042	.245	.329	.388	.718
Tristan Peters	4.0	.616	.171	.025	.094	.373	.796	.251	.329	.391	.720
Chase Meidroth	3.9	.670	.143	.003	.073	.470	.738	.261	.359	.370	.729
Kyle Teel	3.8	.590	.118	.004	.107	.454	.984	.247	.345	.383	.727

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections