Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Framber Valdez vs Erick Fedde · 68°F

7.8% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

56.6%

Chicago White Sox win

43.4%

Fair line (home)

+131

Proj. total

8.79

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.84)Chicago White Sox (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.79

Over

48.8%

Under

51.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	56.6%	+101	-131
Chicago White Sox	43.4%	-109	+131

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Framber Valdez LHP · Detroit Tigers	5.5	5.1	5.4	2.2	2.3
Erick Fedde RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.2	3.1	4.7	1.6	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Framber Valdez4+ 76%6+ 40%8+ 14%

Erick Fedde4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.9	.769	.203	.031	.163	.640	.591	.278	.377	.457	.834
Hao-Yu Lee	4.8	.725	.186	.033	.145	.396	.960	.252	.321	.411	.732
Colt Keith	4.6	.769	.178	.036	.153	.432	.807	.272	.344	.442	.786
Riley Greene	4.5	.674	.197	.016	.220	.510	1.082	.277	.363	.500	.863
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.658	.179	.013	.193	.295	.936	.256	.316	.448	.764
Max Clark	4.3	.676	.160	.039	.117	.426	.779	.256	.334	.408	.742
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.472	.164	.004	.188	.499	1.108	.225	.324	.425	.749
Brett Callahan	4.1	.626	.149	.032	.116	.271	1.001	.244	.303	.392	.695
John Peck	4.0	.672	.172	.019	.093	.231	.946	.256	.305	.388	.693

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.6	.826	.181	.005	.076	.490	.794	.267	.355	.370	.725
Tommy Pham	4.5	.709	.174	.018	.092	.435	1.018	.246	.323	.366	.689
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.603	.205	.012	.135	.559	.750	.252	.356	.419	.775
Randal Grichuk	4.3	.659	.218	.011	.149	.247	.868	.259	.308	.431	.739
Munetaka Murakami	4.2	.462	.116	.003	.191	.621	1.300	.218	.341	.415	.756
Brenton Doyle	4.1	.619	.150	.017	.093	.276	1.103	.232	.288	.354	.642
Jake Rogers	4.0	.497	.132	.017	.107	.386	1.093	.212	.296	.349	.645
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.776	.161	.015	.040	.204	.648	.274	.317	.359	.677
Braden Montgomery	3.7	.570	.160	.021	.074	.322	.867	.245	.320	.371	.691

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections