Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Troy Melton vs Davis Martin · 64°F

1.3% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

50.1%

Chicago White Sox win

49.9%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

8.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.61)Chicago White Sox (mean 4.35)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.96

Over

50.4%

Under

42.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	50.1%	+101	-101
Chicago White Sox	49.9%	-109	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Troy Melton RHP · Detroit Tigers	5.3	4.9	5.2	2.2	2.5
Davis Martin RHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	4.0	5.2	1.8	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Troy Melton4+ 74%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Davis Martin4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 5%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.791	.205	.038	.149	.609	.612	.281	.375	.454	.829
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.766	.168	.004	.120	.574	.784	.256	.352	.386	.738
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.709	.188	.028	.132	.354	.964	.250	.315	.402	.717
Riley Greene	4.5	.680	.195	.016	.190	.475	1.134	.270	.353	.469	.821
Eduardo Valencia	4.4	.648	.179	.009	.191	.278	.962	.252	.308	.441	.748
Max Clark	4.3	.668	.154	.042	.111	.412	.797	.253	.332	.402	.733
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.484	.163	.004	.175	.472	1.155	.225	.321	.414	.735
Brett Callahan	4.1	.621	.139	.033	.101	.279	1.012	.239	.303	.375	.678
John Peck	4.0	.675	.149	.019	.085	.222	.949	.250	.299	.370	.669

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.6	.810	.182	.033	.084	.408	.691	.272	.359	.395	.753
Kyle Teel	4.5	.694	.156	.006	.148	.495	1.132	.253	.342	.407	.749
Miguel Vargas	4.4	.570	.189	.009	.175	.547	.744	.247	.348	.439	.788
Munetaka Murakami	4.3	.462	.113	.007	.247	.631	1.310	.228	.347	.467	.814
Andrew Benintendi	4.2	.672	.169	.014	.132	.367	.762	.259	.328	.415	.743
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.468	.138	.007	.197	.344	1.247	.219	.296	.421	.716
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.680	.149	.004	.080	.406	.693	.259	.344	.372	.716
Braden Montgomery	3.9	.562	.157	.028	.095	.350	.905	.242	.318	.384	.702
Brenton Doyle	3.8	.548	.130	.012	.108	.250	1.015	.229	.284	.366	.650

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections